Cardinals & Rays

Trades

Players

Back

Cardinals & Rays

January 25, 2023

Cardinals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brujan 24 Majors 2B OF Medium 6 6.8 0.7 6.1 4.9 6.1 7.4
Springs 29 Majors SP LHRP Medium 2 26.5 9 17.5 14 17.5 21

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gorman 22 Majors 3B Low 6 41.8 16.1 25.7 20.5 25.7 30.8
12 Comments
  1. Gavin Gratza

    I really don’t think that’s enough of a return for Gorman, although I think BTV is severely underrating him. Springs would be a nice get for the Cardinals, but not at that price. Brujan also doesn’t really fit on their roster

    • John Bitzer

      Gorman’s stock has fallen. If anything, we’re on the high side.

      • Gavin Gratza

        How has his stock fallen? Both Steamer and Zips have him around 2.5 WAR/600Pa’s, and with his elite power, he has pretty substantial upside. As a rookie, he had a 107 wRC+ and a .341 xwOBA. The only thing he had going against him was his defense, but (1.) that was in a small sample size, and (2.) he was still new to second base. His trade value should probably reflect his value as a third baseman, no? Scouting reports on his defense at the hot corner had him as fringe-average.

        • Gavin Gratza

          And with his six years of control, I just don’t get why he’s not valued higher here

        • M P

          Where are you getting your numbers from? Fangraphs shows Steamer projecting Gorman to get 355 PAs and put up 109 wRC+ for 1.4 fWAR in 2023. That’s not a needle mover for most good teams and would relegate Gorman to utility infielder with the Rays. If I’m the Rays, I’m not trading a starting pitcher for Gorman.

          • Gavin Gratza

            I know, I’m saying that on a rate basis, Steamer would have him at about 2.5 wins over 600 plate appearances. The only reason he’s projected for 355 PA’s is because of how crowded the Cardinals roster is. You’re probably right about him being a utility player on the Rays, since they have the same luxury the Cardinals do in position player depth. I’m just saying Gorman’s trade value is too low on BTV.

          • M P

            Ah…. I didn’t understand what you were doing there. The problem though is that 109 wRC+. Teams aren’t going to give up $25MM in trade value for that bat unless they project him to improve at the plate (possible) or because it’s paired with above average defense (less likely in Gorman’s case). I tend to agree with John that if anything Gorman is overvalued right now.

          • Gavin Gratza

            Sure, but the key factor here is that he’d be doing that as a 22/23 year old with a top prospect pedigree. He has an incredibly high ceiling, and based on his projections for next year, a reasonably high floor as well.

          • M P

            I don’t know how high his floor is with average to below average defense, but I do think Gorman is still a promising prospect. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder though. Top prospect pedigree goes away real quick once a prospect hits the Majors and struggles to realize his potential. He’s gotta perform better in 2023. Anyway, this trade was never very likely and is now fully off the table with the Rays extending Springs yesterday.

        • John Bitzer

          Baseball America recently re-ranked him as a 45 if he were still a prospect. That’s a big drop from previous.

          • Gavin Gratza

            What was their stated justification for that reranking? I just cannot fathom how his stock could have dropped based on what he did in 2022, unless you are going purely based on his defense at second base (which, again, really shouldn’t affect his trade value, since he’s naturally a third baseman.)

  2. Dan Hogan

    I believe Gorman was available this offseason as part of a package in the Cards search for a catcher and TOR starter. I don’t think they are eager to move him and would project him to be the primary DH this year along with getting backup duty at the IF corners. Cards don’t usually sell low, so I would expect Gorman to be on the roster in the spring.

Submit a Comment