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Cardinals & Rays

January 25, 2023

Cardinals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Bitsko Minors RHP 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.1
Glasnow 28 Majors SP Low 2 62 30.4 31.6 25.3 31.6 37.9

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Burleson 23 Majors 1B OF Low 6.0 12.1 0.7 11.4 9.1 11.4 13.7
Herrera Minors C 11 8.8 11 13.2
Hjerpe Minors LHP 11.2 9 11.2 13.4
5 Comments
  1. M P

    Nah… Rays aren’t trading Glas only a few months after extending him. I also can’t see them trading Bitsko at such a low value. Better to keep him through his control years and just let him go for nothing in 2025 than do a sell low trade today when 2023 will be his first healthy year as a professional. I’d like to see what the kid has before we move him for peanuts.

    As for the return, I’m not high on Hjerpe. If the Rays are acquiring a Cardinals pitcher, I’d prefer Hence or Graceffo (who I know cost more).

    • Lawrence Friedberg

      I understand your thinking in why trade him when he was just extended. This is not a normal extension as they are really only on the hook for 5 million oir a year. They can’t afford 25 next year and I’m certain he will be long gone by than anyway. There I’m just of the belief that Glasnow is a buy high candidate that would bring just as much now as he would at the deadline. I can’t see them getting much if they wait until next winter either. Having him for two full seasons (to a team that can afford him in 2024), is a big selling point. The risk to the Rays that he re-injures his arm at any point this year may reduce his value substantially and while the They expect to be as competitive in 2023 and the rotation would take a hit moving him. they could be getting valuable players for their future, both immediate and long term.

      The fact that they extended Springs (already 30) being for a guaranteed 30million is shocking to me based on one good year. If anything it does free them up to move Glasnow at some point or Rasmussen. The Rays had a good year without Glasnow in ’22 and with the depth they have and adding anyone of the dozen veteran FA arms still available on a very cheap deal0r picking up an arm via a trade) they could get some league average production and still be competitive, especially if they get all the increased offense from returning players they expect. And if not, and they have an off year, they would have improved for 2024 and beyond.

      • M P

        I’m not in the “Rays can’t afford Glasnow’s 2024 salary” camp. They extended him for one year at $25MM and according to BTV doing so added about $5-10MM in extra trade value. The ROI just isn’t there if they extended him knowing they would trade him before 2024. Now, that doesn’t mean they won’t trade him, but the only way I see that happening is if the Rays decide they aren’t good enough to compete for a WS title this year or next. As for his trade value, if Glasnow pitches as well in 2023 as he did in 2021 before the injury, then I think his trade value will be $60-80MM at the Deadline or around $30-40MM next offseason based on top pitchers earning in the $40-45MM range (plus the value of his QO).

        I don’t think the Springs extension will affect Glasnow at all. The Rays controlled Springs through 2024, so his extension won’t really affect their 2023 calculus.

  2. Lawrence Friedberg

    If there’s one thing the Cards need it’s a bonafide TOR who solidifies all the injury prone arms they are counting on this season. And while Glasnow had TJ in 2021, he proved that he was recovered at the end of the season. The reason he may be available is that there is no way he pitches for the Rays in 2024 when he is set to earn 25 million. But the Cards will have 3/5hs of their rotation turning FA after this year and they certainly may not find a TOR for one year to replace any of them. And they probably can also try to extend him longer, where the Rays cannot. Bitsko is a guy that is a couple of years removed from TJ himself but should be ready to continue his ML career in a couple of years.

    Cards can afford to move all three of the guys in this dea without hurting their 2023 team. lRays get Burleson who could slot right in a COF/DH who as much potential as any Cards OF’er and still is likely to be a 4/5 OF with them. Herrera is blocked with the Cardinals and could become the catcher of the future for the Rays in 2024. Hjerpe, as a first rounder is someone the Rays could develop for 3/4 years away.

    • M P

      Clarification – Bitsko had shoulder surgery for a torn labrum, not TJS. Much more serious injury.

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