Brewers & Guardians Submitted by: GMakd February 17, 2023 Brewers Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Bibee Minors RHP 18.2 14.6 18.2 21.8 Espino Minors RHP 49.7 39.8 49.7 59.6 Martinez Minors SS 9.6 7.7 9.6 11.5 Total Value: 77.50 Guardians Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Burnes 28 Majors SP Low 2 106.8 28.5 78.3 62.7 78.3 94 Total Value: 78.30
CLE: For a pitching factory, they may not need to do this trade. It’s far more likely Espino or Gavin Williams fills in a rotation spot or that they just role with Zach Plesac. Therefore this trade isn’t really one the Guardians should accept. I’m using them because they have such a fun and deep system. But if they did trade for Burnes, they would get a perennial Cy Young pitcher. Enough said. Maybe htey would be willing to ink him to a long term deal.
MIL: Why do teams make it a hobby to alienate their star players? Burnes reported his relationshop with the team was “hurt” following the arbitration negotiations. In this deal the Brew Crew would receive Daniel Espino (#11 prospect in my personal rankings). He can turn it up to 100 and sum times higher and has one of the best arsenals of pitches in the entire minor leagues. Tanner Bibbee (#71 in my personal rankings) is a major league ready arm as well. That”s 2 highly rated pitchers ready to contribute. Angel Martinez provides young middle infield upside to a system that needs some outside of Tyler Black and Eric Brown Jr
Cleveland’s excellent front office always has to walk the fine line between now and the future. This proposal costs too much of their future. They have resisted trading Espino, Williams, and Bibee for players that would fill a greater need. Cleveland says no.
yea I don’t think this trade is likely either. I do love their pitching prospects and would be surprised if they gave any away. It is hella fun though to trade some of these guys in the simulator because the farm system is so freaking good I could draw up quite a few trades between MIL and CLE.
Looks like the Brewers are going to be screwed come 2025 with all these pitchers contracts coming up for free agency.
Better start dealing a few of them off i they aren’t willing to pay big bucks to keep them.
Its not a matter of tanking or not tanking, its a matter of keeping the franchise competitive down the road.
They for sure should trade Woodruff or Burnes. If they are willing to trade Hader, they should dump some SPs for sure. Especially if that said pitcher decides he doesn’t want to be in MIL anymore. I think quite frankly we could be staring at a rebuilding team here in a couple years.
I think you guys covered it pretty well and thanks for the explanation GMakd. I will say that Bieber will be offered an extension this spring, but I doubt it will be enough for him to accept it. Point being they would be in the exact same position with Burnes which means both are gone after the 25 season. Doing this deal means Cleveland loses out on years of Espino and Bibee while losing Bieber and Burnes to FA. Doesn’t fit the Cleveland way of building their team.
I think CLE ponies up to Bieber. Hes been their guy since the came up. Who knows what Burnes asking price is anyway.
Like I said I don’t think thisi trade is likely but its about what MIL might ask for
I think they exchanged some numbers prior to Bieber’s injury in 21, but he wasn’t interested. I doubt the offer will be as good as it was then. There’s an outside chance that Shane could be extended, but I don’t see it as very likely and honestly, I don’t like the risk. Especially with the stockpile of arms in the system that starts with McKenzie. That’s the lone SP I’d be offering a good extension to. If it had been me, I would have traded him to the Dodgers for a haul, but I’m probably in the minority when it comes to that. Also, I’m assuming a “haul” could be had.
ahhh pretty soon those Bieber rumors gonna touch off again. We will soon have another stud pitcher relevant for mock trades!
Interesting discussion with a lot of good points. Regarding obtaining Burnes is a good idea or not I think depends on who you give up in the trade. Let me do it this way:
The Good: Burnes and Bieber at the top of the rotation should increase your chances of winning the AL Central and give you a great chance in the playoffs. If Espino is traded, you will still have Williams pitching in AAA for 2023 and available in case he’s needed. I agree Cleveland will not sign both Burnes and Bieber, so you trade Burnes this next off season to fill a need or for some good prospects. So, the decision amounts to how much you give up in this trade verses how much you receive in the 2024 trade plus you had Burnes for the 2023 season.
The Bad: Espino and Bibee are currently in AA and expected to pitch in AAA. One or both of them makes the majors this year and pitches lights out. To make matters worse, they continue their strong pitching and become top of the rotation pitchers for the Brewers. Even if they don’t make the majors in 2023, it would still hurt to see them be TOR pitchers in 2024 and beyond.
The Ugly: Burnes gets hurt and misses a good portion of the year and the above BAD scenario also happens. Told you it was ugly. 🙂
Of course, injuries can happen in any trade to either team so that’s a risk built into every trade.
The Brewers are also taking a big risk in this trade. Yes, Espino and Bibee look promising, but they are realistically still 2 years away. And it would really get the fan base ticked off because they probably just gave away their chance to make the playoffs. Martinez is really not needed because they already have Turang and Toro and as mentioned, Black and Brown Jr. in the system.
Bottom Line: I don’t think Cleveland would have to make this decision. Milwaukee would turn it down anyway.
Espino has struggled to stay healthy as well. Your the first person who thinks the Brewers say no first, by the way. I looked at this trade after I posted it, and I thought the Guardians say no, because they are so good at developing young pitching they don’t need Burnes. Also trading Burnes after one season is not worth it.
Guardians would actually say no because they are so high on both Espino and Bibee. They have all three of their top pitching prospects rated the same so no way they would put two in any deal. They turned down putting Espino in Murphy and Reynolds deals (both when they needed production from those positions).
Cleveland is open to trading for Burns, but they will no include any of their top 3 pitching prospects. Brewers don’t need an OF prospect, so a return around Rocchio and Allen makes no sense for the Brewers. I just don’t see how these two teams can meet up for a Burnes deal with the current values.
Also through the rumor mill I heard one of Cleveland’s scouts has Martinez as the best potential bat in their entire system. On paper he’s available, but they aren’t going to let him go at the BTV price, that’s for sure…
Bibee is not 2 yrs away. In fact, he’ll likely make his debut this season. If healthy, Espino makes his debut next season and possibly sometime in the second half of this season. Martinez is a prospect quickly climbing prospect rankings. Just another Cleveland prospect that the pundits overlook. If he’s a Dodger or Yankee he’s well into the top 100 already. Point being, Milwaukee never gets the opportunity to reject this deal because it would never be offered. If it were they would be absolutely stupid to refuse it. Antonetti stated that Bieber isn’t available right now, but a package like this would probably change his mind rather quickly as it should. If Bibee and Espino were highly rated, low level prospects then this deal would make sense, but they’re not so it doesn’t.
I love it! BigBat you are correct in saying the Brewers would be stupid to turn down this trade IF Bibee is ready to take Burne’s place in 2023 and Espino also becomes a reliable star pitcher sometime in 2023. And of course, Martinez will be a much better player than Turang but he’s currently under rated. If that’s all true, then I agree with you. By the way, I gave some very good reasons why Cleveland shouldn’t make this trade.
Is it possible the Brewers might turn down this trade because their evaluations on these players are not quite as high as yours? For instance, both pitchers haven’t yet pitched in AAA. Is it possible the Brewers would be cautious on the evaluation of each pitcher prior to pitching against better competition? Is it possible that the Brewers look at Martinez and agree he’s a good prospect but doesn’t fill an immediate need? Is it possible the Brewers like the trade but prefer to get both prospects and immediate major league help for the 2023 season in a different trade?
No offense taken by the way. I thought they were stupid with the Hader trade. As it turns out, they wound up with an all-star catcher and a potential mid round starter who’s currently in AAA out of that trade. It doesn’t look so bad anymore. However, the timing was terrible as far as most fans were concerned, and it may have cost them a chance to be in the playoffs last year. I’m sure they are conscience of that and trading Burnes for what looks to be no certainty of immediate help for the 2023 season would probably hurt ticket sales.
I think since most people agree that Cleveland wouldn’t offer this trade anyway, so this is all a moot point. However, I did want to justify my reasons why the Brewers might not agree to this trade. Being stupid wasn’t one of the reasons I considered but you may be right, it’s always a possibility.
I don’t think I said anything at all about Martinez being a better player than Turang. The entire MLB industry is high on all 3 of those prospects(prior to Espino’s injury) and the chances of Burnes extending are not good. He’s going to get a huge contract and MIL probably can’t give it to him or match what another large market team will. I hate it, but that appears to be the reality at the moment.
The Brewers take this deal in a NY minute because they don’t have a single SP prospect like either of Bibee and Espino. Martinez being included isn’t a major factor really due to the 2 top 100 SP prospects.
The “stupid” remark wasn’t directed toward the Brewers only. I think Cleveland would be stupid to turn down this type of return for Bieber. Especially if it appears that an extension isn’t likely. I understand that dealing a SP like that could lessen the chances of competing this season, but going forward it is certainly most likely to be beneficial. We’re not talking about to low level minor leaguers here. Therefore the chances of failure are drastically reduced. In fact, I’d argue that Bibee could pitch better than Civale and Plesac right now. With his stuff and control he might soon find himself at the top of Cleveland’s rotation. He’s that talented.
In the end I doubt Cleveland offers one of their top pitching prospects for a rental let alone 2 of them.