Mariners & Braves Submitted by: ejs11604 February 21, 2023 Mariners Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Acuna Jr. 25 Majors OF Very low 6 222.7 102 120.7 96.5 120.7 144.8 Harris II 22 Majors OF Low 10 260.8 87 173.8 139 173.8 208.5 Total Value: 294.50 Braves Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Kelenic 23 Majors OF Low 6 6.3 0.7 5.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 Marlowe Minors OF 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 Rodriguez 22 Majors OF Very low 15 591.8 305 286.8 229.4 286.8 344.2 Total Value: 294.50
A couple of days ago, I posted another trade proposal and had some questions about the contract information. I’m again thinking of the contracts and how they inform the value we assign to a player. This is an interesting trade proposal. Thanks for sharing it!
2022 American League Rookie of the Year. 2022 Silver Slugger, and 2022 AL All Star, Julio Rodríguez, is awesome. He signed a massive contract with the Mariners late this summer and with that contract he’s able to opt out for 2030 when he’s 29 years old. Pretending that we know he will do that, the M’s are on the hook for $119.33 MM for him to play. I think this is fabulous
Totally an aside here: The Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg to a 7 year deal worth $245 million dollars. We’re 3 years into that contract and he’s pitched in a total of 8 games.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is also an All-Star like these other two players, also a Silver Slugger, also a WS Champ like Strasburg and also a ROY like J-Rod. He got hurt like Strasburg, but that’s in the past and it’s not apples to apples. Go Braves!
Acuna Jr.’s signed to a massive contract. But is it really comparable to these other two? Going forward, Acuna Jr. has 4 more years of guaranteed money, a total of $68MM. There’s two more years of Club Option following, $17MM each. Let’s say he’s worth it to the organization and so that’s 6 years at $102MM.
Assuming that both outfielders are the superstars that we dream on and cheer for, it’s 7/$119MM for Seattle and $6/102MM for Atlanta.
And then there’s also Michael Harris II. There’s other guys in this trade, but first I focus on Harris II. He too is a ROY, an outfielder, and signed to a longer contract. He’s also signed to 8/$72MM. Marlowe & Kelenic are in this trade and not to be ignored but for now I’m on how much $ is committed to the big pieces and so it’s about J-Rod, Acuna Jr. and Harris II. I prefer the commitment on the Braves’ side because I think there’s better odds on return of value. The Braves have these two outfielders for at least the next 6 years for an AVV of $156MM compared to J-Rod being $106MM.
So just keeping it at what’s good for the next 6 years, understanding that this is limiting the scope and all the skewing of results that come with it, what do we think so far? Me? I’m thinking about Jarred Kelenic.
Kelenic is under contract for the next 6 years. I’m not betting against him being good. As fans, I think we’re spoiled a bit with getting predicted top prospects like Acuna, J-Rod, Tatis, Guerrero Jr., Rutschman, etc. Maybe with media attention mostly on J-Rod, Kelenic can progress easier. If he can play at a level comparable to three outfielders then maybe there’s something more here. Right now, he’s not a great fit for the Braves to trade for.
Cade Marlowe’s in this trade proposal too! I don’t follow West Coast teams quite so much but I do know that this guy’s a recent top MLB prospect. I appreciate how this trade’s constructed with pure young outfielders and Marlowe would be an insanely awesome steal in a vacuum at 2.1 Median Value. He’s a Georgia college guy and the Braves do have a predilection for that type, and rightly so. With Kelenic in proximity of Marlowe I’m hesitant to salivate over whatever meat’s on the bone here. But he’s surely a guy that as a Braves fan that I’d be happy to cheer for and hope that he could come play left field really soon. I don’t think this site’s robust enough to accurately reflect the RL value of a player like Marlowe. He’s a deeper sleeper for me. I dig the pick and the elegance that his inclusion makes for this trade idea.
I’m with the Braves and I’m ready to win now. Therefore, it’s Acuna Jr. and Harris II every day for me on this. I like diversification of 3 guys over 2 but Atlanta’s got two top outfielders signed for at least 6 years and J-Rod’s not better than that. As for the two other guys in Seattle, Kelenic sucked in the Majors and Cade Marlowe’s a fringe guy for me.
The trade proposal intrigues me. As a Braves fan, I have no interest in it. I think the deal with J-Rod’s good, but the roll of the dice on the other two guys isn’t where Atlanta’s at and I much prefer the known quantities with Acuna Jr. and Harris II.