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Rays & Reds

May 23, 2023

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Diaz 26 Majors RHRP Low 4.8 57.1 23.6 33.6 26.9 33.6 40.3

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Caminero Minors 1B 31.5 25.2 31.5 37.8
Misner Minors OF 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.5
10 Comments
  1. Daniel Miller

    It still remains to be seen if the Rays can once again MacGyver an elite bullpen together again, but right now the only reliably elite arms they have are Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks, and even they’ve had their rough patches. Kevin Kelly pitching high leverage isn’t ideal (at least not this year), so the Rays need to take advantage of the fact that they’ve managed to develop some legitimate offense at the big league level and figure out which minor leaguers they can part with.

    Trading the ascending Caminero could come back to bite them in a few years, but hopes are still high for Curtis Mead and Xavier Issac is showing a sweet swing and great plate discipline in the lower minors. If Caminero ends up at 1B, and Issac continues his trajectory, there may come a time when there won’t be a place for both of them in St. Pete.

  2. DJ dajuba

    I think Caminero is 4 years away from being a regular and that’s to far away for the Reds, I think…..sure you can call an eta of ‘25 but that’s probably a cup a of coffee then in ‘26 hopefully he earns himself the lion share of a full time spot. I think if the Reds were to entertain trading Diaz they’d be looking for someone who is on the cusp of being a regular. Someone like Josh Lowe who’s looking like he might be figuring it out and is much more ready then he showed last year. Add in Aranda and I think you might have something, for the Reds at least.

    • Daniel Miller

      IMO it doesn’t make sense for the Rays to part with Lowe anymore since he’s a big part of what the Rays have developed at the big league level.

      Aranda on the other hand is certainly doable.

    • M P

      LOL. Josh Lowe “might be figuring it out”. Well, he’s hitting .307/.362/.621 (173 wRC+) through tonight, which is good for 2.1 fWAR today and the equivalent of 6.8 fWAR for the full year. So yeah, I suppose you could say he’s figuring it out.

      All kidding aside, the Rays can’t trade Lowe. They’ll be moving Aroz at the end of this year or next, and they have to have a big bat outfielder to complement their defensive outfielders. Lowe is that guy.

  3. Michael Parker

    Agree, the Reds are looking for talent now and not so much ‘future’ talent. Josh Lower or Taj Bradley fits the mold but would the Rays be willing to be that bold. Probably not, but I don’t think the Reds would settle for much less now. Given Diaz control and affordability, any team will have to overpay otherwise, the Reds would retain to help them in the ‘winning window’ beginning in 2024. It may take Lowe/Caminero and Montgomery to get it done.

    • M P

      I imagine that most everyone on the Rays’ active roster (other than most of the crappy Pen) is unavailable for trade. Rays have a good and deep Pen though, with good players at every level.

    • M P

      Whoops. I meant to say the Rays have a good and deep FARM (not Pen).

  4. M P

    I always love the mindset of fans when a player on a bad team is in demand. It’s always “the team will only move him for a huge overpay” and then the player gets moved (maybe in the offseason or the next year) for a less than huge offer. Just look at all the A’s trades over the past year.

    I don’t know what the Reds’ wish list or team needs are, but they aren’t winning anything this year. So if they can turn a dominant reliever into say 2-3 potential starters in 2 years’ time, then that’s a deal that maybe they should make, even if the team has other top prospects at the same position. There are no guarantees in baseball, and not every prospect stays healthy or becomes an everyday player at the next level. The only certainty is this – Diaz will have less control this time next year. He will be more expensive in 2 years time. He will be a free agent in 4.5 years. And he may get injured any time. If he can’t help the Reds win a championship in the next 2-3 years, the Reds would be better served moving him for fair value over holding out for a huge offer.

  5. Michael Parker

    Reds fan here and I get what you are saying. Of course we want an overpay, who doesn’t. Even national broadcasters are stating that it would have to be an overpay at this point to acquire Diaz but like you mentioned, each year he get less control and more expensive. I think Reds are in drivers seat on this one and do not have to move him at this point unless it is an overpay. With that being said, I believe that bad teams do not need elite closers. They may help a team like the reds win a handful of games but the reality is we need much more than a handful to be competitive. If you can flip Diaz for a position of need that build out your roster then that needs to be looked at. When you are a good team, then worry about closers.

    • M P

      Hey, I get it. I’m a Rays fan. We live and die by the trade. Of course, for every Archer trade, there’s a Snell trade, with the difference being the Rays waited for their pitch with Archer and took a good deal when offered, and were motivated to move Snell because of all the post-WS bad blood and ended up taking a bad deal (in retrospect). No idea how this applies to Diaz though.

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