Padres & Tigers




Padres & Tigers

October 27, 2019


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Boyd 28 Majors SP Medium 3.0 63.0 30.4 32.6 30.6 34.8 38.9


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Campusano Minors C 24.7 19.8 24.7 29.6
Cantillo Minors LHP 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7
Potts Minors 3B 11.9 9.5 11.9 14.3
  1. SD Reaper

    This is a strange looking one until you look beyond the surface of it. I think it’s safe the say the values put on both Boyd and Cantillo here are quite low, and the value on Potts is a bit high.

    The Tigers should be in full rebuild mode, and this is a great return for Boyd. Campusano was the MVP of his league and established himself as a top 100 prospect and one of the best Catching prospects in the entire league. Cantillo’s value should be much higher than a 1.4, as he was one of the best performing pitching prospects in the entire league, going 9-3 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 27 BB, and 128 Ks in Single A with universal improvement on all 3 of his pitches, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him as a top 100 prospect as well next year. Potts didn’t do too well last year, but he still has pretty decent upside as a power hitting infielder.

    Padres are taking a bit of a risk in this one by giving up 2 of their best trade chips in Campusano and Cantillo, but Boyd has some serious upside to him. Moving from the AL to the NL should help that crazy number of Home Runs come down a bit, and having Boyd in a rotation along with the likes of Paddack, Richards, Lamet, Lucchesi, Gore, Patino, and any outside acquisitions going forward would be fun to watch and would yield quite a bit of strikeouts.

    • John Bitzer

      I’ll have to respectfully disagree about your first point — I don’t think it’s “safe to say” that the values are too low on Boyd or Cantillo. We are using objective data to arrive at our values.

      In the case of Cantillo, his value is low because the major scouting outlets are low on him (we are not scouts ourselves; if those outlets change their ratings on him, you’ll see his value change here, but until they do, we can’t presume anything; the point is the same about Potts in reverse). Yes, his stats looked good at the A-ball level, but those can be deceiving with prospects, and indeed his small sample size at the next level was not as impressive. He is not one of their best trade chips at all. He was a 16th-round draft pick, suggesting he doesn’t have a ton of upside, and if you look at respected outlets like Baseball America or Fangraphs, you won’t find him high on their list.

      In Boyd’s case, he had a performance dropoff in the second half, which raised a lot of doubts. His track record prior to this year was spotty, he’s not considered an ace, and he’s getting more expensive now in his arb years.

      All that said, this feels like a fair deal.

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