Submitted by: Duval84
August 10, 2023
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availablility | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder | 24 | Majors | SP | Medium | 6.3 | 85.2 | 37.3 | 47.9 | 38.3 | 47.9 | 57.5 | |
| Ozuna | 32 | Majors | OF | DH | Low | 1.3 | 4.4 | 24.8 | -20.4 | -24.4 | -20.4 | -16.3 |
| Schwellenbach | Minors | SP | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | ||||||
| Shewmake | 25 | Majors | SS | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
I’m a Braves fan and I’m approaching with that perspective. Duval84, I’m curious to read about your thought process in coming up with this one.
Juan Soto would be awesome in the Braves 2024 & 20025 outfield! He’s an elite player, arguably top 10-15 this season. He’s won a Silver Slugger Award in each of the past 4 seasons.
Soto’s earning $23MM this year and it’ll surely be more in 2024. If he was with the Braves, he’d be the highest paid player. And he’s Arb-Elig!
Marcel Ozuna’s well-paid as well. $16MM in 2024 and a Club Option in 2025. So, while Soto’s projected 2024 salary would be a lot to add for the Braves, they’re subtracting Ozuna’s.
So why would the Padres be wanting to make this trade? I’m having a tough time finding a metric about Bryce Elder’s outcomes since the end of May that aren’t trending in the wrong direction. Just last season, the Padres traded away a lot of top tier prospects to acquire Soto. Why change the plan?
It reads to me like it’s just a trade proposal where one team sends over players that suck and are overpaid (Ozuna) or players that have inflated values on this site (Elder) or middling prospects.
Soto isn’t under Arb in ‘25. So if you wanna know my thought process. TRENDS, AA two years in a row, has traded for a young star and extended them immediately. Soto should be next. It’s a much smarter investment than Shohei. If you give soto’s a 12 year deal, he would only be 37 if you gave Shohei at 12 your deal he would be 41. Soto fit the team model.
Ozuna offsets Soto’s likely 30MM contract next season. Padres get a controllable starter and save money. With a few lottery tickets.
Soto won’t command a huge haul like he did the first time.