SportsCoachTy Archy
on September 3, 2023 at 10:02 pm
They aren’t trading Arias, who they plan on being on the roster long term… He’s been batting extremely well since Rosario left plus he is likely the best actually SS of the group since he has a much stronger arm than Rocchio. They aren’t going to trade him. Freeman is the odd man out…
…and that helps the Guardians how? Are you a Giants’ fan? That’s the only way this deal makes any sense at all.
Gabriel Arias is Cleveland’s starting SS and he’s looking to be a very good one for years to come. What the hell does Cleveland need a 17 yr old OFer for? Especially when Jaisson Chourio is a better prospect.
I have no issue trading a SS to the Giants, but it won’t be Gabriel Arias and it will be for one or more of Winn, Black and Whisenhunt. The Giants have nothing else to offer the Guardians that would help the current team.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on September 4, 2023 at 6:52 am
OF Arias is going to be a top 100 prospect going into next year. I don’t buy that Chourio is a better prospect and having one talented teenage outfielder isn’t a reason to not acquire another. I don’t buy that CLE sees SS Arias as their SS of the future (or that “he’s looking to be a very good one for years to come”). This trade would help CLE by freeing up a 40 man spot and playing time for other guys while bringing in a significant prospect. Also, didn’t you just propose a Rocchio trade where OF Arias was the main piece going back?
I think SS Arias is the most tradeable of CLE’s young MIF. He’s replacement level at SS with baby Wily Adames upside if he can figure out how to make contact and stop hitting so many grounders. That has value, but not too much value to be traded. He also has fewer years of control than the younger guys, and unlike Freeman, who needs his bat to improve to be useful, Arias is useful even if he remains a bad hitter because of his defense. That’s not to say that CLE needs to trade Arias specifically (although they should trade one of their MIF guys), but that’s why Arias is potentially more valuable to another team than he is to CLE
SF is operating as second tier contenders (pending something like an Ohtani signing) and they don’t have the upper level minors depth that CLE has. SF needs a SS of the present and the future (assuming they eventually realize that Luciano is not a viable defensive SS), so Arias is more attractive than other CLE MIFs because he’s shown he can be not awful at the MLB level. Because their MLB SPs are old and soon to be free agents, I think they would prefer to deal someone like OF Arias than SP depth.
You don’t have to buy anything, just look at the numbers.
No, I didn’t just post a trade where Arias was the main piece coming back. I included him in the deal to close the value gap. Cleveland is looking to catch the Twins yet this season and their certainly looking to contend going forward. A low A prospect, regardless of ranking, does nothing to help them.
Gabriel Arias is showing why he was valued so highly by Cleveland’s evaluators, coaches and FO. I’m perfectly fine with dealing a SS to the Giants. In fact, I think it’s a great idea since I’ve been posting trades to do that for almost a month. Offer them Rocchio or Freeman or Tena and get back one of the SP I mentioned. That’s the only trade that makes sense for Cleveland.
SportsCoachTy Archy
on September 4, 2023 at 5:25 pm
I like Arias as a prospect and I would want him in a deal, but trading Arias makes no sense to me…
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on September 5, 2023 at 11:35 pm
SS Arias is hitting .223/.299/.375 for a .296 wOBA, 88 wrc+, and 88OPS+. Fangraphs has him at +3 runs for defense and -3 runs for base running, totaling to 0.5 fWAR. BRef has him at -2 runs for base running and -1 for fielding, totaling to 0.1 bWAR. If you look at his batted ball data, he has an xWOBA of .313, suggesting that he’s been a bit unlucky and is roughly average as a hitter. He has great exit velocities and hard hit% (especially for a SS), his walk rate is a bit above average, his K rate, chase rates, and contact rates are awful, and half of his batted balls are grounders. He has been hitting better over the past couple weeks, but the change in fundamentals that correlate with his increased performance are a drop in walk rate and a huge spike in BABIP, so it’s almost certainly unsustainable. Statcast does like his defense and base running a bit more though, with +4 fielding run value and +2 runner runs
Which of these numbers makes you think that Arias is locked in as CLE’s SS of the future? He’s been replacement level this year and looks like a 1-2 WAR guy going forward, with solid defense and an extreme power over contact approach at the plate. If he can go from worst in the league to bottom 20% of the league in contact rate, raise his launch angle by 15 degrees, and pull the ball more to get to his power, he could be Wily Adames. If pitchers adjust to exploit his tendency to chase and swing and miss, he’s replacement level or worse. Overall, that’s a good player that a lot of teams (SF for instance) would like to have, but CLE’s other MIFs offer a similar floor with collectively more upside
I like Wisenhunt a lot but he isn’t MLB ready and Black and Winn aren’t an upgrade over similar guys CLE already has (Curry, Gaddis, Cantillo). Even if we accept your assertion that CLE should only be making moves to strengthen the MLB roster (despite being on pace for 77 wins with a negative run differential), I don’t see why CLE would target those guys
Dude! He’s 23 and why don’t you tell me how he’s been hitting since he has been in a starting role. Gabriel Arias is your SS going forward unless he falls off a cliff offensively. There isn’t another SS prospect in Cleveland’s entire system that can touch his upside which is why you see this organization being patient. They should have removed Amed last offseason so that Gabriel could have had consistent playing time from the get go, but….
Arias does need to improve his LA. I’m guessing that’s going to happen along with an overall better approach as he matures. When that happens you’re looking at one of the most valuable SS in the game. Worst case scenario is they have a Willy Adames type SS.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on September 14, 2023 at 6:00 am
Dude! I laid out my point of view and provided stats and reasoning to back it up, you don’t get to just say nuh-uh and tell me to go find stats for your point of view (well I guess you can, it just isn’t constructive or persuasive)
To quote myself: “He has been hitting better over the past couple weeks, but the change in fundamentals that correlate with his increased performance are a drop in walk rate and a huge spike in BABIP, so it’s almost certainly unsustainable.” He has an 88 wrc+ in 68 PA since 08/24 (the start of his current run as a primary SS), an 82 wrc+ in 148 PA since 07/26 (the Rosario trade), and an 83 wcr+ in 142 PA for the season as a SS. Since my previous comment on 09/05, his season stats have dipped to a .209/.281/.351 for a 76 wrc+
I don’t think that’s worthy of a guaranteed starting spot, especially for a team with as many young MIF as CLE. If you have other stats that paint a different picture I’d be glad to take a look at them
Cleveland isn’t moving Arias, at least not for an OF when they have Valera and DeLauter coming…
OF Arias is 17 and doesn’t need to be on the 40 man until 2027. He wouldn’t factor in to CLE’s logjam of AAAA guys
They aren’t trading Arias, who they plan on being on the roster long term… He’s been batting extremely well since Rosario left plus he is likely the best actually SS of the group since he has a much stronger arm than Rocchio. They aren’t going to trade him. Freeman is the odd man out…
…and that helps the Guardians how? Are you a Giants’ fan? That’s the only way this deal makes any sense at all.
Gabriel Arias is Cleveland’s starting SS and he’s looking to be a very good one for years to come. What the hell does Cleveland need a 17 yr old OFer for? Especially when Jaisson Chourio is a better prospect.
I have no issue trading a SS to the Giants, but it won’t be Gabriel Arias and it will be for one or more of Winn, Black and Whisenhunt. The Giants have nothing else to offer the Guardians that would help the current team.
OF Arias is going to be a top 100 prospect going into next year. I don’t buy that Chourio is a better prospect and having one talented teenage outfielder isn’t a reason to not acquire another. I don’t buy that CLE sees SS Arias as their SS of the future (or that “he’s looking to be a very good one for years to come”). This trade would help CLE by freeing up a 40 man spot and playing time for other guys while bringing in a significant prospect. Also, didn’t you just propose a Rocchio trade where OF Arias was the main piece going back?
I think SS Arias is the most tradeable of CLE’s young MIF. He’s replacement level at SS with baby Wily Adames upside if he can figure out how to make contact and stop hitting so many grounders. That has value, but not too much value to be traded. He also has fewer years of control than the younger guys, and unlike Freeman, who needs his bat to improve to be useful, Arias is useful even if he remains a bad hitter because of his defense. That’s not to say that CLE needs to trade Arias specifically (although they should trade one of their MIF guys), but that’s why Arias is potentially more valuable to another team than he is to CLE
SF is operating as second tier contenders (pending something like an Ohtani signing) and they don’t have the upper level minors depth that CLE has. SF needs a SS of the present and the future (assuming they eventually realize that Luciano is not a viable defensive SS), so Arias is more attractive than other CLE MIFs because he’s shown he can be not awful at the MLB level. Because their MLB SPs are old and soon to be free agents, I think they would prefer to deal someone like OF Arias than SP depth.
If anyone is being moved, it’s Rocchio for a haul or Freeman… Arias isn’t going anywhere in my mind…
You don’t have to buy anything, just look at the numbers.
No, I didn’t just post a trade where Arias was the main piece coming back. I included him in the deal to close the value gap. Cleveland is looking to catch the Twins yet this season and their certainly looking to contend going forward. A low A prospect, regardless of ranking, does nothing to help them.
Gabriel Arias is showing why he was valued so highly by Cleveland’s evaluators, coaches and FO. I’m perfectly fine with dealing a SS to the Giants. In fact, I think it’s a great idea since I’ve been posting trades to do that for almost a month. Offer them Rocchio or Freeman or Tena and get back one of the SP I mentioned. That’s the only trade that makes sense for Cleveland.
I like Arias as a prospect and I would want him in a deal, but trading Arias makes no sense to me…
SS Arias is hitting .223/.299/.375 for a .296 wOBA, 88 wrc+, and 88OPS+. Fangraphs has him at +3 runs for defense and -3 runs for base running, totaling to 0.5 fWAR. BRef has him at -2 runs for base running and -1 for fielding, totaling to 0.1 bWAR. If you look at his batted ball data, he has an xWOBA of .313, suggesting that he’s been a bit unlucky and is roughly average as a hitter. He has great exit velocities and hard hit% (especially for a SS), his walk rate is a bit above average, his K rate, chase rates, and contact rates are awful, and half of his batted balls are grounders. He has been hitting better over the past couple weeks, but the change in fundamentals that correlate with his increased performance are a drop in walk rate and a huge spike in BABIP, so it’s almost certainly unsustainable. Statcast does like his defense and base running a bit more though, with +4 fielding run value and +2 runner runs
Which of these numbers makes you think that Arias is locked in as CLE’s SS of the future? He’s been replacement level this year and looks like a 1-2 WAR guy going forward, with solid defense and an extreme power over contact approach at the plate. If he can go from worst in the league to bottom 20% of the league in contact rate, raise his launch angle by 15 degrees, and pull the ball more to get to his power, he could be Wily Adames. If pitchers adjust to exploit his tendency to chase and swing and miss, he’s replacement level or worse. Overall, that’s a good player that a lot of teams (SF for instance) would like to have, but CLE’s other MIFs offer a similar floor with collectively more upside
I like Wisenhunt a lot but he isn’t MLB ready and Black and Winn aren’t an upgrade over similar guys CLE already has (Curry, Gaddis, Cantillo). Even if we accept your assertion that CLE should only be making moves to strengthen the MLB roster (despite being on pace for 77 wins with a negative run differential), I don’t see why CLE would target those guys
Dude! He’s 23 and why don’t you tell me how he’s been hitting since he has been in a starting role. Gabriel Arias is your SS going forward unless he falls off a cliff offensively. There isn’t another SS prospect in Cleveland’s entire system that can touch his upside which is why you see this organization being patient. They should have removed Amed last offseason so that Gabriel could have had consistent playing time from the get go, but….
Arias does need to improve his LA. I’m guessing that’s going to happen along with an overall better approach as he matures. When that happens you’re looking at one of the most valuable SS in the game. Worst case scenario is they have a Willy Adames type SS.
Dude! I laid out my point of view and provided stats and reasoning to back it up, you don’t get to just say nuh-uh and tell me to go find stats for your point of view (well I guess you can, it just isn’t constructive or persuasive)
To quote myself: “He has been hitting better over the past couple weeks, but the change in fundamentals that correlate with his increased performance are a drop in walk rate and a huge spike in BABIP, so it’s almost certainly unsustainable.” He has an 88 wrc+ in 68 PA since 08/24 (the start of his current run as a primary SS), an 82 wrc+ in 148 PA since 07/26 (the Rosario trade), and an 83 wcr+ in 142 PA for the season as a SS. Since my previous comment on 09/05, his season stats have dipped to a .209/.281/.351 for a 76 wrc+
I don’t think that’s worthy of a guaranteed starting spot, especially for a team with as many young MIF as CLE. If you have other stats that paint a different picture I’d be glad to take a look at them