Yankees & Rockies




Yankees & Rockies

November 8, 2019


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Blackmon 32 Majors OF Medium 4.0 58.5 74.0 -15.5 -17.5 -13.6 -9.6
Gray 27 Majors SP Medium 2.0 40.0 15.7 24.3 20.3 24.3 28.3
Story 26 Majors SS Low 2.0 83.2 28.7 54.5 52.5 57.7 62.8


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Andujar 24 Majors 3B Medium 4.0 34.9 7.7 27.2 23.7 27.2 30.7
Frazier 24 Majors OF Medium 4.0 23.5 4.5 19 16.7 19 21.4
Garcia Minors RHP 26.3 21.6 26.3 31
  1. John Bitzer

    This one is interesting. Rockies get a 1B who will probably mash in Coors, a talented potential starter, an OF who needs a change of scenery, and salary relief by unloading Blackmon’s contract. NYY is a team that isn’t afraid to take on underwater contracts, plus they get a SS replacement (to pair with his old pal LeMahieu) and fill their starting pitching need (albeit with another Gray). I could see it.

  2. E Schwarz

    Rockies get two players who are damaged goods and are future DHs and a short pitcher who is probably a reliever in the majors.
    Yankees get a great shortstop,a decent starter coming off a bad year and an expensive outfielder they don’t want or need.
    This is almost the same deal Sherman wanted to foist on the Indians for Lindor.

  3. Trades MLB

    Hey John, I’m having trouble trying to figure out what might make Willson contreras’s value just 13. What’s the reason behind it?

    • John Bitzer

      Mostly it was the bad 2018. Most projection systems use a weighted average of the last three years, with the most recent year carrying the most weight and the second-most recent carrying the next most. So that bad 2018 hurts a bit, as does the fact that he’s injury-prone. Any team trading for him will look at all that with some skepticism and weigh his value similarly.

      • Trades MLB

        Ah. Still think it is way way to low. He’s one of the best catchers in baseball with 3 years of control…

        • John Bitzer

          I wouldn’t be surprised that he went for an overpay relative to this valuation. But I also have to trust the numbers to a large degree. The other component is BP’s catcher metrics, which result in a lower rating for him relative to the league, and which we factor in.

          If you base it just on 2019, sure, you could say he’s one of the best catchers. But what to make of that 2018? And who’s to say he won’t regress to that again? And he’ll get more expensive in his Arb2 and Arb3 years.

          So I hear you — again, wouldn’t be surprised. But just sticking to the model for now.

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