Mariners & Reds & Rockies




Mariners & Reds & Rockies

January 27, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 28 Majors 3B Medium 7.0 250.2 234 16.2 14.2 27.7 41.2
Blackmon 32 Majors OF Medium 4.0 54.2 74.0 -19.8 -21.8 -18.1 -14.4
Bowden Minors LHP 4.1 3.3 4.1 4.9
Senzel 24 Majors 3B OF Very low 6.0 85.3 18.2 67.1 58.6 67.1 75.6
Cash 15


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Murphy 28 Majors C High 4.0 20.4 10.5 9.9 7.9 9.9 11.9
Sheffield 23 Majors SP Low 5.0 29.7 13.0 16.7 13.7 16.7 19.7
Story 26 Majors SS Low 2.0 77.9 27.5 50.4 48.4 53.3 58.2


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Aquino 25 Majors OF Low 5.0 10.7 6.4 4.3 2.3 4.3 6.3
Casali 30 Majors C High 3.0 6.5 3.7 2.8 0.8 2.8 4.8
Crawford 24 Majors SS Low 4.0 55.8 19.3 36.5 30.9 36.5 42.1
Gonzales 27 Majors SP Low 4.0 54.2 21.9 32.3 26.9 32.3 37.7
Stephenson 26 Majors RHRP SP Medium 4.0 13.8 8.3 5.5 3.5 5.5 7.5
Swanson 25 Majors RHRP SP Medium 6.0 1.5 0.5 1 0.9 1 1.2
  1. Kurt Eger

    The Reds unload Senzel while he still has some prospect shine, even though his projected numbers for this season is a 1.3 WAR. The Mariners would use him at SS, which is fine for a team not expected to compete, but hardly what the Red’s would want to do after investing heavily in their team. The Rockies need the Mariners for the salary dump, so they get rewarded with Senzel. Charlie and Nolan figure to make $53M and the Rockies would kick in $15M, while also dumping $12M in Story on the Reds.

    Crawford gives the Rockies a starting SS, Rodgers becomes the replacement for Arenado at 3B, Gonzales improves the rotation and should be familiar with high altitude pitching since he grew up in Colorado. Casali gives them another catcher besides Wolters, and of course Stephenson and Swanson give them two righties capable of being stretched out for the rotation or thrown into late inning work eventually. While Aquino is no Blackmon with the bat, he is projected to hit 32 HR in Cincinnati and should be able to at least equal that in Denver. The $50M savings in 2020, along with the expiring contracts of Davis and McGee give the Rockies $70M to build around a younger core of players who project to be worth on 4 less WAR in 2020.

    The Reds of course make out like bandits in this deal because they are essentially taking a prospect who has lost some of his luster (Senzel) and an outfielder who outperformed his pedigree and is likely headed to the bench or the minors (Aquino) if he stays in Cincinnati due to their recent additions. Adding a backup catcher in Casali and a long reliever in Stephenson to what amounts to surplus talent, they return an All-Star shortstop (Story) who was the best player last-season on a team that boasts a future first-ballot hall-of-famer (Arenado). In addition to Story, they also get to add Murphy who was one of the best all-around catchers in the game last year, and a left-handed top prospect that could either improve their bullpen down the stretch or fill-in for an injured starter. At the very least, Sheffield offers additional trade capital for future deals.

    Sure the Mariners look like clear winners, but they are taking on $234M in future salary for Arenado, $74M in future salary for Blackmon, and only offsetting that with $15M from the Rockies. The first thing people will say is that why would the Mariners do it since Arenado would opt-out after the second year. Or more likely, they would wonder why Arenado would even waive his no-trade clause. The answer is anywhere is better than Colorado right now in his mind based on his uncharacteristic outburst and if he’s going to lose in Colorado, why not lose in Seattle where they are in the process of a rebuild that is closer to bearing fruit. Here is the reason this makes sense for the Mariners. These additions don’t block the Mariners top prospects. Truthfully, the Mariners could easily promote Kelenic to replace Fraley/Mallex/Bishop in CF, trade Haniger or Vogelbach to make room for Rodriguez and none of this prevents their swarm of stud pitchers from forcing their way into the rotation and bullpen. In a season where the Mariners are not expected to compete, if they start off hot, they could promote Kelenic, Rodriguez, and Gilbert to create in-house upgrades for a playoff run. More likely, they will create a great base and a strong leadership environment for the young OF prospects when they arrive in late April 2021.

    I would be blown away to find out that guys like Arenado don’t consider the minor leagues when deciding which team is set to compete. I have to imagine that Nolan could take a look at the glut of prospect talent about to reach the major league level for the Mariners, combine that with some existing talent like Haniger, Seager, Vogelbach, Nola, and Long to see a pretty strong core. If he were told that a top prospect like Senzel was going to accompany Blackmon and himself to Seattle without trading away the future, he would be more than willing to trade a season of rebuilding for the chance to be on a championship caliber team for the next half decade.

    For the money side, the Mariners would only be at $145M for the year and should be able to add Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez to the rotation for $10M/2 years for each pitcher, making the total payroll around $155M. They will shed $30M by 2021 by declining Gordon’s contract for 2022 and by reducing the amount of money paid to get rid of bad contracts in the past. By 2022, the Mariners will no longer be paying for Leake or Seager, which would save more than $20M/year, making their payroll drop again to around $105M. So they would have ample room to add star players in 2021 or 2022 after they figure out which players are building blocks and which one need to be moved to the trading block.

  2. Marc Parkinson

    Senzel still has a lot of value left.
    His hitting took a hit because of an idiot hitting coach.
    He will be healthy this year, and worth a whole lot more.
    However, I love Story, and would take this trade.

  3. Riley Withers

    I could see Seattle as a out of left field dark horse for Nolan assuming they trade Seager or at worse he plays a little at 1st now not sure if nolan would stay in Seattle or opt out obviously would have to see were Seattle would be when that time came

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