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Brewers & Pirates

February 1, 2020

Brewers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Archer 30 Majors SP Medium 2.0 29.0 20.0 9 6.1 9 11.9
Kela 26 Majors RHRP Low 1.0 6.2 3.7 2.5 1.9 2.5 3.1

Pirates

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Garcia Minors SS 4.9 3.9 4.9 5.9
Kelly Minors LHP 2.9 2.3 2.9 3.5
Nottingham Minors C 3.1 2.5 3.1 3.7
Rodriguez Minors OF 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.8
13 Comments
  1. Sean Ricky-Bobby

    Brewers add a rental arm in Kela to there already strong pen and slots in as a 7th/8th inning guy. Archer adds much needed depth to the rotation and the Brewers’ analytic heavy approach with pitchers hopefully unlocks Tampa Archer. In return the Pirates get a bundle of young prospects with higher ceilings similar to the type of prospects they targeted from the D-Backs. Eduardo Garcia and Carlos Rodriguez in particular could see big upswings in value next year and Kelly is a massive drink of water with a big arm. Nottingham gives them an mlb ready and controllable catcher which is something the organization is lacking.

  2. Larry Krueger

    I just don’t think Chris Archer is worth it. Brewers already have 4 middle rotation pitchers plus Peralta and Burnes looking to get another chance at starting. I’d think the Brewers would rather keep the prospects. Yes, if Archer could be good again, that would be nice but you have to go all the back to 2015 when he was really good.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      Fair point on Archer but I think you buy him as more of a high K #3. I think one of the young lotto ticket players gets you Kela so you are giving up two lotto tickets and Nottingham for an innings eater. Brett Anderson is an injury risk and Lindblom/Lauer are risky in there own rights. Adding Archer would let Freddy working long relief in the pen and Corbin stretch out in extended spring training then the Minors.

  3. Matthew Swinkey

    Mostly I think the Brewers are too cheap for this, prospect cost and risk of Archer sucking aside.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      Too cheap? Like they wouldn’t pay 9 mil for Archer or 3.7 for Kela? or they wouldn’t want to deal the prospects? I disagree that the salary would be an issue since they are 25? mil or so under last years max payroll and 10-15 under a typical year, stating the plan was to have room to add salary via trade. On the prospect front sending out all that young talent might indeed be a no go for the font office.

      • Kyle Konicke

        The Brewers shouldn’t pay $1 for Archer. He’s been very mediocre for a few years now and is coming off a career worst season into his age 32 season. He’s also a slider heavy pitcher, which notoriously don’t age well. We have enough starting pitching depth that I’m not super interested in Archer. I’ll add this site undervalues both Kelly and Rodriguez.

        • Sean Ricky-Bobby

          I disagree that Archer is a negative asset and wouldn’t help the Brewers. I’ve said it elsewhere but I don’t see a ton of difference talent wise between Archer and Robbie Ray. Kelly Garcia and Rodriguez all have high ceilings but their proximity to the majors and lack of polish is why they are lower value, tons of live arms and high ceiling bats wash out even ones ranked in the top 50 hence the lower evaluation.

          • Kyle Konicke

            2019 stats would beg to differ, with Archer pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Archer is also 31, and slider-heavy pitchers don’t age well. The likelihood of him bouncing back isn’t very good. Also, the Brewers have 5 guys set in their rotation with 2 super-high upside arms competing for rotation spots and Suter available as pen/rotation depth. Depth really isn’t an issue. Archer was worse statistically than every member of the Brewers current starting rotation and is trending the wrong direction. He’s also $9 million in payroll. Hard pass. Pirates would have a better chance to move him at the deadline is he has at least a decent first half.

        • Sean Ricky-Bobby

          For some reason I can’t comment on your response so I’ll leave it here.

          2019 wasn’t a good year for Archer no debating that. I also agree the Pirates best move would be to wait till the deadline since this is the low point in Archer value.

          I disagree with your read on Archer being done and while your right I wouldn’t want to be investing in Archer for the next 5 years but one year at 9mil plus a club option for 11 isn’t bad. One of the reasons they don’t age well is injury concerns effecting the slider so if he is hurt in 20 you can just not pickup the option. We obviously have a different view of Archer but I’d prefer him to Lauer or Anderson plus Peralta or Suter. I think Suter and Peralta in the pen make the team better for 2020. I think Archer will be a round a 4 era pitcher with the upside to be a high 3er pitcher so around a 3ish WAR pitcher.

  4. Ben Nicolson

    Really don’t see the Pirates willing to face the humiliation of trading Archer without getting a significant prospect back (which no one will pay on current form). They probably wouldn’t trade him at the moment as his value is absolutely bottomed out, better to try and rebuild his value than just give him away along with Kela for four nobody prospects

    • Kyle Konicke

      Antoine Kelly had 41 k’s and 5 bb in 28 innings last year(first year in the bigs), and is projected to throw close to 100 mph at maturity from the left side. Carlos Rodriguez has a career .327 BA at age 19 and will open in A ball. Those are definitely NOT the definition of nobody prospects.

      • John Bitzer

        Just a reminder that we are not prospect evaluators. We rely on the experts to do that, and simply translate their ratings into trade values here. If they upgrade Kelly and Rodriguez, we will too.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I agree that this likely isn’t the right time to trade Archer since his value is at his lowest but would argue the prospect package is far from a bunch of nobodies. There is no way around the PR shit sandwich the pirates are going to eat when they trade Archer but they have shown so far in the rebuild that they are interested in acquiring prospect packages that include very young players with high ceilings instead of one big name. In 2 years there is a chance all three of the young players are on top 100s, risk that isn’t the case as well, but Brewers wouldn’t trade them if it was certain.

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