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Brewers & Orioles

February 14, 2020

Brewers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Means 26 Majors SP Medium 5.0 39.0 19.6 19.4 15.5 19.4 23.3

Orioles

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Feliciano Minors C 7 5.6 7 8.4
Lutz Minors OF 14.7 11.8 14.7 17.6
4 Comments
  1. Larry Krueger

    This trade idea came from another proposal that included the Orioles Cobb’s bad contract going to the Brewers and Cains large contract going back to the Orioles. I didn’t think the Brewers would approve that trade but hoped this mini version of that trade might be acceptable to both teams. Orioles get 2 promising prospects and Brewers get a young starting pitcher.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I would think both teams are leery of making this deal especially the Brewers who would probably not do it for Lutz alone. If the raw numbers stick and Means’ 4.41 fip and 5.48 xfip with low K9 are what we are working with he is just a cheap/controlled version of Brett Anderson. Means had zero prospect pedigree and doesn’t have a deep set of tools other then being kinda crafty. Now on the flip side say he experiences some skills growth and those underlying number improve making him a true talent low 4 era lefty thats a big value swing up for the Os. If I’m Baltimore I would want to try and juice a little more out of Means and net a larger hall. If he does improve his skills a little I would imagine he is in the low 20s in value next offseason and could command a safer better return. I don’t think the Brewers would want to gamble on this growth with two of there better prospect trade chips.

      • Larry Krueger

        Thanks for your comments and all good points. What I thought the Brewers would especially like about Means is pitching for the Baltimore Orioles he still had a 4.6 WAR (Baseball Reference) with a 155 innings pitched on 27 starts and a whip of 1.135. He’s only going to be 27 in the 2020 season and has 5 years of control. I reluctantly used those two Brewer prospects in this trade but it may be more prudent to not trade them unless Milwaukee is convinced that Means will maintain his skills or as you said, get even better. I guess the 4.6 WAR and the 5 years of control were just to tempting to ignore.

        • Sean Ricky-Bobby

          I understand that thought and that is a great whip and bWAR total for 2019. Didn’t realize he already so old tho which scares me a bit more and makes me think more skills growth isn’t coming. The 3.60 era is pretty fraudulent tho as was the 12 wins which drove up his bWAR. If he duplicated his 2019 with more normal luck he is a 4.8 era pitcher with a low K rate which is closer to a 1.6ish WAR arm. The parks are a factor with Miller being kinder to lefties but its still a very difficult park for pitchers so maybe with the Brewers he is more a 4.6 era with a tiny K bump. In my eyes this type of pitcher is pretty replaceable and while its nice to have him at 575k instead of 4 mil giving up any prospects for that is in my opinion a misallocation of resources. Means can/could continue to develop and show that his ability to maintain low hard hits isn’t a fluke then in the 2021 offseason the Os could get a much better return. I think teams right now see that 5.48 xFIP and wouldn’t want to pay 3.60 era prices. Good thought tho looking at the obvious sellers for matches makes a lot of sense I just don’t think Means is the guy.

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