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Red Sox & Rays

November 18, 2020

Red Sox

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Kiermaier 30 Majors OF Medium 2.0 16.1 25.8 -9.7 -11.6 -9.7 -7.8
Snell 27 Majors SP Very low 3.0 86.6 39.0 47.6 42.8 52.4 61.9

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Downs Minors 2B 26.4 21.1 26.4 31.7
Hernandez 23 Majors LHRP Low 5.0 21.5 8.6 12.9 10.3 12.9 15.5
Wong Minors C 2.9 2.2 2.9 3.6
8 Comments
  1. Will M

    Snell’s value has been updated from when this deal worked without Darwinzon Hernandez. The inclusion of DH creates a much more realistic package, despite Tampa having a lot of middle infield depth.

      • Will M

        They might, but using he valuations on this site, would you make see that deal as fair?

    • M P

      “Realistic package” – That’s funny.

      1) The Rays are never going to make a major trade with the Yankees or Red Sox while they are competitive. I doubt they would do so when they aren’t competitive. The Rays just came off a WS year. They are not going to trade their best pitcher to the Red Sox, even if he is on the market (which I’m not sure he is).

      2) There is no way the Rays are going to trade KK off of a negative 9.7 trade value. If that’s how the rest of the league views KK, the Rays will just hold on to him. After all, he put up 1.3 fWAR last year, which is essentially what JBJ did (1.4). Any Red Sox fan want to argue that JBJ doesn’t sign a deal worth more than the 2 years $26 million left on KK’s deal (which could be a 3/$36 if the option is picked up)?

      3) The Rays have one of the best 2B in the league in B.Lowe, who is signed through 2026 at very low rates ($2.5 million next year). The Rays have 2 of the top 3 prospects at the 2B position in Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards. The Rays have the best prospect in baseball in Wander Franco, and he may start out at 2B (although 3B is more likely) before moving to SS. Why in the world would the Rays agree to a trade with the main return being a SS/2B?

      • John Bitzer

        To your second point, the Rays traded Longoria when his value was negative, and kicked in money to do so. Also, the Red Sox reportedly tried to trade JBJ last season, which makes sense because it was his walk year and they had little use for him — but found no takers, mostly because teams viewed his $11M salary as too high. He’s unlikely to get that AAV now that he’s even older.

        Agree with your other points, though.

        • M P

          John – This is fun. You keep me on my toes. Regarding Longo, I see the main difference between KK and Longo in the size of the remaining contracts and the competitiveness of the Rays at the time of the Longo trade. Longo had about $90 million remaining on his deal when he was moved, had started to noticeably regress and was playing for a completely non-competitive Rays team. It made sense to trade Longo and get out from under that contract. It also was the right thing to do for Longo, as SF was a much more competitive team at the time of the trade. As for kicking in money, I will admit that I was surprised they ponied up about $10-15 million (I think) to make that trade work, but they also received Christian Arroyo back in that trade and he was ranked around the top 50 prospects at that time. Given the Covid hit to finances, and the Rays’ farm system being #1, I doubt the Rays will want to pony up money to move KK, whether to get a decent player in return or not. In fact, they are more likely to include a backend prospect in any trade with KK to offset his salary than include money.

          I wasn’t aware that JBJ’s salary was deemed too high to make trades work. If that’s the case, then KK is more overpaid than I thought (I still don’t believe he’s got negative 9.7 trade value though). 😉

      • Stephen Slavick

        The Rays are always looking to cut salary, so dumping KK would be a big plus for them. I agree, giving up Snell to a division rival would be very hard to do, but they reportedly had wanted Vaz, last year. D Hernandez has a lot of potential and is far away from arbs. To be honest, I do not think the Rays would do this deal. I think re-working it to give the Sox Chirinos or Yarborough would be more “realistic.” (Maybe no Chavis, but as a Sox fan, I’d love to dump him.)

        • M P

          Most Rays’ fans are thinking the Rays will try to move KK this year. They have the pieces to offset the loss (Margot and Phillips at the MLB level and J.Lowe in AAA) and there is the risk of KK regressing faster than expected or getting injured. Still, I can’t see the Rays moving the former face of their franchise to Boston. However, they would probably do that before trading Snell to Boston. I could see a Chirinos or Yarbs trade with Boston, especially if the return piece was Vazquez.

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