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Angels & Rays & Tigers

November 30, 2020

Angels

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Beeks 26 Majors LHRP SP Low 4.0 15.5 6.2 9.3 6.5 8.4 10.2
Snell 27 Majors SP Very low 3.0 86.6 39.0 47.6 42.8 52.4 61.9

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Reyes 25 Majors OF Medium 3.0 21.3 8.7 12.6 10.1 12.6 15.1
Rogers 25 Majors C Medium 5.0 3.8 0.6 3.2 2.6 3.2 3.8
Turnbull 27 Majors SP Low 4.0 32.2 14.7 17.5 14 17.5 21
Wentz Minors LHP 3.9 3.1 3.9 4.7
Cash 18

Tigers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Adams Minors OF 15.9 12.7 15.9 19.1
Jones Minors 2B 4.9 4 4.9 5.8
Marsh Minors OF 36.2 29 36.2 43.4
11 Comments
  1. Elias Q

    This trade is based on MLB.com’s 5 Black Friday Deals we’d like to see (link will be located at the bottom). I know this trade looks sloppy, but it does make sense for all 3 teams.

    1. The Angels’ pitching. They get that arm they need to anchor the rotation and a bullpen reinforcement.

    2. The Tigers’ need for MLB-ready players. They get 2 MLB-ready outfielders in Marsh and Adams, and Jones fills in a hole left by Johnathan Schoop.

    3. The haul that the Rays recive. They can use Victor Reyes to fill the hole left by Hunter Renfroe. They have a pitcher in Turnbull that has the kind of stuff the Rays want in a pitcher. They have a catcher in Rogers to fill in for Zunino. They also get a prospect in Wentz.

    I know I didn’t include D’Shawn Knowles, but that was due to a major overpay problem I had. I know that this trade is very sloppy, but I hope it will make sense to those of you looking at this.

    Link: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-black-friday-deals-2020 (look at the 1st trade)

    • Bob Sacamano

      I believe this is an overpay for the Tigers. Wentz at 3.4? IMO, When Drew Smyly is earning $11m after a “2020 revenue loss” storyline season; Joey Wentz’s value should surely be higher. Tigers desperately need young potential catchers

      • John Bitzer

        Since Wentz is still a prospect, his valuation comes entirely from our prospect model, which is arrived at based on a weighted average of public systems. In those, he’s typically either a 40+ or a 45. It has nothing to do with what an established starter might make in free agency.

        • Bob Sacamano

          That makes complete sense Mr. Blitzer. I was talking more so about recent market trends, the repercussions of 2020, and unforeseeable 2021. How you could/would assess that, I’m not sure. IMO, young competent SP’s previously at or above AA will continue to be valued higher in the real-world context; due to team control and pre-arb/arb years. Drew Smiley only came to mind, because he was one of the latest FA signings.

          • John Bitzer

            Yes, I see, and agree with your points. We’re monitoring the market closely to see if that indeed happens, and if it does, we will adjust accordingly.

    • username 1001

      The trade is unlikely on its face, but the issue I see is that Beeks will be recovering from TJ surgery in 2021. So not the best bullpen help available to the Angels.

      If you tweak it to Fairbanks instead of Beeks, it makes more sense, at least from the Angels perspective. Might have to move Jackson instead of Jones to balance it though. IRL obviously it depends what the Tigers value of the Angels’ prospects.

    • username 1001

      After playing with the trade simulator, it is kind of amazing how unbalanced MLB’s proposed trade is. According to BTV, the trade in its original form won’t even pass onto the boards!

      • John Bitzer

        This happens a lot. Most journalists have no idea how to balance a trade properly.

    • M P

      The Rays don’t sell their players. They demand prospects with high upside that they can develop so they can turn $1 in today’s value into $3 – $5 in tomorrow’s value. This trade doesn’t work for the Rays for other reasons, but the biggest problem is that it has $18 million going to the Rays. That’s not how the Rays operate.

    • M P

      So I looked into the trade more fully, and I come away shaking my head. It always shocks me how MLB views some of its small market teams, with the Rays being the least loved by the Head Brass. Apparently the Rays are supposed to be nothing more than a glorified talent developer for the big market teams, and when one of those teams wants a top player from the Rays, the Rays should just hand them over for whatever trade pieces the big market team is willing to part with. Sort of frustrating…

      Anyway… This trade has the Rays trading their Ace, a pitcher with a Cy Young on his mantle and who just shut down some of the best offensive teams in baseball, for 1 very solid mid-rotation pitcher, 1 pitching prospect whose upside is probably that of a solid mid-rotation pitcher, a young defensive catcher who can’t hit, and a young outfielder who probably can’t beat out Meadows/Tsutsugo to make the team. On top of all that, the Rays would need to either cut or trade 2 additional players from their 40 man just to make room for these guys. Yet somehow the author of this trade bills it as a “very Rays thing to do”. Actually no, it isn’t. The Rays do not trade for guys that can be signed off the street to nothing contracts. The Rays trade their top pitchers for at least one top position player and one top pitching prospect, or they will hold on to Snell until the deadline or next year. The Rays have a WS caliber team and the best Farm in baseball, they absolutely do not need quantity trades at this point in their life cycle.

      Ok, rant over…

      • John Bitzer

        I hear you. A lot of A’s fans feel exactly the same way. For a long time, they were perceived as the Yankees’ farm team.

        Any small-market team that excels at finding and developing young talent, but then has to keep turning over that talent once it gets expensive, is going to face that.

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