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Nationals & Royals & Angels

December 23, 2020

Nationals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Duffy 31 Majors SP Very high 1.0 6.2 15.2 -9 -10.9 -9 -7.1
Perez 30 Majors C Low 1.0 22.4 14.2 8.2 8.2 9.8 11.5
Upton 32 Majors OF Low 2.0 8.3 51.0 -42.7 -51.2 -42.7 -34.2
Walsh 26 Majors 1B Medium 5.0 9.8 5.1 4.7 3.6 4.7 5.8

Royals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Adams Minors OF 15.9 12.7 15.9 19.1
Adon Minors RHP 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9
Mendoza Minors 3B 1B 6.6 5.3 6.6 7.9
Rojas Minors 1B 2B 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8

Angels

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Cate Minors LHP 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.1
Corbin 30 Majors SP Very low 4.0 59.6 107.7 -48.1 -57.7 -48.1 -38.5
Keller 24 Majors SP Medium 3.0 40.7 21.5 19.2 15.4 19.2 23
Soler 28 Majors OF High 1.0 10.4 8.0 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
11 Comments
  1. bobby zane

    Royals are finished with the rebuild. They aren’t going to trade there core players. Definitely not going to trade salvy

    • Dan May

      I was thinking they are still a few years away based on the strength of the twins, white sox and indians. That is why i thought they may trade perez, duffy and soler in exchange for some players who fit more with their contention window. Keller is less likely to actually be traded as he is still young but for the trade to work i had to be able to send send him for his value. I dont know that they get quite enough of a return though and i would probably agree they would be the team of the 3 to not agree to it

      • bobby zane

        Yeah, I mean I’m not saying they are going to win the division or anything but salvy is pretty much an untouchable for the royals I would think. He’s probably getting a big extension soon. Keller probably wouldn’t get traded either. Duffy and soler would be up for grabs however I don’t think the royals would value soler at 2.4 mil. They are going to value him mainly off the 2019 season

        • Dan May

          I could definitely see them extend perez i think they just wanted to make sure he is what he was before his injury. Your appraisal of soler’s value to the royals brings me to a thought that, while i appreciate the effort and time put into the player value system created by the simulator, player’s individual value can change depending on the team looking to acquire them. For instance, if the rockies were to try to trade nolan arenado to the reds, the -47 value makes a lot of sense due to the small market and obvious rebuilding stage they are in. On the other hand, if the dodgers, a deep pocketed serious contender with a hole at 3rd base, i think his value would actually be much closer to a positive value. I dont know how that would be incorporated into the value ratings system but i feel there is something to that which could be hard to quantify. Going back to the royals, along with the development of young tigers pitchers coming along with the young and productive cores of the twins and white sox and consistent success of the indians, the al central could be the best division of baseball within the next 5 years

          • bobby zane

            Definitely agreed. I kind of take the values with a grain of salt because I feel some of them are inaccurate so I typically do in love players in trades that are either undervalued or overvalued. Like honestly I don’t know why Scott Barlow is worth as much as Josh hader is and worth 10 points more than a guy like Josh staumont. Then you have a guy like Brad Keller who has proven himself as a dependable mid rotation starter and is slowly showing he is a frontline guy on his rookie deal yet he’s worth 19 mil.

        • John Bitzer

          Barlow has more surplus because he’s a lot cheaper, and has proven himself to be effective with four years of control remaining. Hader was a super two, and as such is getting quite expensive, plus he’s coming off a down season. Keller is a good, not great starter — you can see that Steamer only projects him for 1.6 fWAR in 2021.

          To the larger point about values being different for every team, yes, we’re aware of that. We focus on the aggregate, not the individual cases, which is why we provide a range (the median is the value most people focus on, but in reality, the player could be valued at the low end or the high end depending on the case and team).

          • Dan May

            That makes sense and i think this is a really interesting way to value the players. I guess in trying to balance things out i could include cash in a deal? I havent tried that yet and maybe it will make it easier to balance out some of the deals with players such as arenado to the dodgers where, unless another significant player or group of players are included by the rockies to the dodgers. Thank you for taking the time to explain it and thank you to bzane19 for the discussion on the trade. I am always open to talking about my thought process in creating trades and really enjoy talking to people who provide alternative persoectives. Feel free to comment on any of my other trades. Merry Christmas to both of you!

  2. bobby zane

    Yes thank you to both of you for the explanation and the discussion. I also am curious as to why mushroves value is so high. Based off production I would say he is just an average starter. 2020 was his first year under a 4 era at 3.86. I would take Keller’s production over musgrove any day and Keller is more controllable. I’m probably biased because I’m a royals fan but I feel like musgrove should be in the 15-20 mil range if Keller is at 19.2. Hahahaha I’m just a being of curiosity thank you for your time and merry christmas! 🏂

    • John Bitzer

      Thanks for your question about Musgrove. You may not realize it, but he’s been roughly a 3-WAR pitcher the past two seasons, and Steamer projects him for 3 WAR again. That’s much, much better than average. Keller, by comparison, is roughly a 2-WAR pitcher and is projected for 1.6 in 2021.

      I wouldn’t focus on ERA, as it’s an antiquated stat that no serious front office uses. More advanced stats, such as xwOBA, are more predictive. By that measure, Musgrove had a 2.83 in 2020, which was well above average (which, for starters, is about .320); Keller has been consistently below average, in the .330s the past two seasons. In short, a further look shows Musgrove to be much superior. And he’s dirt cheap in arbitration salary terms, which makes him quite a good value.

      • Dan May

        I feel like for the pirates, mitch keller would be lore valuable because of their ages, making musgrove more expendable since the pirates are not likely not going to contend for a few years but i guess the salary and more proven track record would yield a higher value to other teams.

        • John Bitzer

          Right. I assumed we were talking about Brad Keller of the Royals above. Mitch Keller does have more value than Brad, and he’s close to Musgrove, but he hasn’t really established himself at the major-league level yet.

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