Orioles & Reds




Orioles & Reds

December 27, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Castellanos 28 Majors OF High 3.0 30.4 48.0 -17.6 -21.1 -17.6 -14.1
Castillo 27 Majors SP Low 3.0 149.6 34.8 114.8 91.8 114.8 137.8
Miley 33 Majors SP Low 1.0 3.9 8.0 -4.1 -4.9 -4.1 -3.3
Moustakas 31 Majors 2B 3B High 3.0 28.4 48.0 -19.6 -23.5 -19.6 -15.7


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Hall Minors LHP 29.3 23.4 29.3 35.2
Kjerstad Minors OF 21.8 17.4 21.8 26.2
Santander 25 Majors OF Medium 4.0 35.7 15.5 20.2 16.2 20.2 24.2
Zimmermann Minors LHP 2.9 2.3 2.9 3.5
  1. Chad Smith

    This trade exemplifies the flaw in this system…you cannot rate players trade value based solely on their salaries. Were the Reds to make a trade such as this they would be ridiculed by every so-called “expert” in the baseball world

    • John Bitzer

      Sorry, I don’t understand this comment. The model by no means rates players “solely on their salaries.” That would be absurd.

      I suspect what you mean is that good players making high salaries tend to have less surplus value, and you’re challenging that as a conceptual framework. If I have that right, it’s a fair challenge. However, it’s contradicted by countless real-life trades in history that suggest otherwise. We track every trade against our model, and it’s doing quite well, as you can see here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/

      There is a fan perception that good players = high trade value. While it’s often true that there is a higher acquisition cost to get them (and we factor that in), there’s just no evidence that that is the case. Salaries matter as a factor, because front offices tend to be run on tight budgets (especially this year), and in offseasons, they can just sign free agents to fill needs, which means trade targets on high salaries have to compete with those options.

    • Dan May

      I know that castillo is one of the most valuable pitchers on the trade block right now and my motivation for the orioles was to be oushing to supplement their young hitters with some strong pitching with the reds prioritizing getting a number of prospects while unloading salary. I know that the prospects the reds would be getting are on the young side and this approach did result in a quantity over quality method but i dont know if the haul is that bad when the contracts they unload are factored in. I do think it is a very valid question to ask whether the reds would dilute their return on castillo by attaching burdensome contracts to him.

Submit a Comment