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Cardinals & Rockies

February 2, 2021

Cardinals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 30 Majors 3B Medium 6.0 144.3 199.0 -54.7 -54.7 -43.7 -32.8
Cash Minors 50

Rockies

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gil Minors SS 2.9 2.3 2.9 3.5
Gomber 27 Majors SP LHRP Medium 4.0 13.8 8.9 4.9 3.9 4.9 5.9
Locey Minors RHP 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
Montero Minors 3B 4.1 3.3 4.1 4.9
Sommers Minors RHP 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
16 Comments
  1. Max Bernauer

    What an overpay, this website is obviously the most accurate…..

    • John Bitzer

      You might be new here. We’ve been saying for months that Arenado’s contract was underwater, and the trade validates that. Colorado’s mistake was to sign him to a ridiculously expensive extension. Then, when things went south both with the relationship and with Arenado’s injury-riddled 2020, the contract went further underwater. It’s arguable that they didn’t have to sell low on him. But there is a ton of risk in taking on that contract, so the Rockies saved a bunch of money, got rid of the risk, and got a few minor prospects back. From a pure baseball perspective, it looks like a fleecing; but from a business perspective, it is not.

  2. John Bitzer

    Thanks for posting these latest versions, everybody. We can use this one to comment.

    One note: Although this has the updated players, we still don’t know all the financial details. It had been reported that Arenado would defer some of his salary, but we don’t know how much or until what year (this is potentially significant, because the net present value of the salary will likely go down a little, which will in turn make his surplus estimate a bit higher, which in turn will close this value gap a bit further). On the other hand, the extra year at $15M is slightly negative, value-wise, so it’s probably a wash.

    • John Bitzer

      Cash component now being reported as $51M, closing the gap a bit.

        • John Bitzer

          Yes, it appears that’s the case. But it seems highly unlikely that he would opt out of that contract, especially now that he’s playing for a team that he likes.

  3. Robbie Hyde

    I think this is a decent package for the Rockies, and they’re able to get out of the contract. People will still get onto the Rockies for sending over the $50 mil, and say they got fleeced, but it needs to be done. Good for the Rockies for getting a major league ready guy in Gomber who could be a good fit in Coors, and he’s not a free agent until 2026. They also get a third base prospect in Montero, their #8 prospect, who has a ton of bat speed that should generate a lot of power in Coors. They also get a solid shortstop prospect in Gil (#22) that could turn into something to replace Story. He’s already very good in the field, and tends to get a lot of barrels on the ball. A couple of pitching prospects as well. I like it.

    • Joe Lombardo

      Where I disagree on the business side is, the Rockies are still paying Nolan’s salary for this year (some deferred, but still 100%). So my question is, why not keep him for the value he brings on the field this year, since you are paying for it anyway? Chances are he would opt out at the end of the year, so really the only “risk” involved for the Rockies is not gaining the few mid-level prospects. But they would gain a compensation pick, and also not have to pay the additional $16M they are on the hook for. Net-net, the Rockies are trading one year of on-field Nolan value plus a comp pick plus $16M for 5 mid-range prospects.

      And what If Nolan doesn’t opt out at the end of the year, you say? Well, you trade him then, when in theory he has more value because of the lack of the opt out as well as the chance that he rebounds in production.

      I understand the negative value of Nolan’s contract, and the desire to get out from under it long-term. What I don’t get is the timing.

      • John Bitzer

        That’s a valid point. I argued a while ago that they should just let him walk for the same reasons — a net loss of roughly zero is better than a net loss of $43M or so. But I suspect they traded him because they realized he was not going to opt out (because he’ll never see that kind of money again), so they were stuck with the underwater contract and risk, and chose to get out of it.

  4. Cameron Nordstrom

    Its certainly an interesting package that the Rockies got back. As expected, no top prospects, but I am surprised they didn’t target more of the Cardinals’ young pitchers, like Woodford, Whitley, or Rondon.

    Gomber doesn’t do much for me other than add a lefty to a rotation/bullpen that sorely needs them. I doubt that his soft-tossing, curveball oriented style will play well at a field where pitches are known to spin and break significantly less than normal. He generates a good amount of groundballs but I have to wonder whether or not that will continue if his curve doesn’t break like it used to. I like him better in the bullpen but I bet they’ll put in the rotation.

    Gil doesn’t intrigue me much either. He fits perfectly into the pile of young middle infield prospects that the Rockies already have at the back end of most of their top prospect lists, along with Amador, Tovar, Carreras, and Diaz. Colorado seems to like collecting this profile of middle infielder. I don’t know anything about Sommers other than that he’s a 23 year old that’s yet to play above rookie ball. Lottery ticket.

    This is where it gets interesting for me though. I like Locey, I think his high 90s fastball could play well in Denver, but I don’t see him as a starter. I also have my doubts that the curveball he’s praised for will play well in Denver, but ultimately I like him.

    Now, I’m going to throw on my tinfoil hat for a second and say that the Rockies front office might actually be trying to use the Coor’s Effect to their advantage here. I’ll admit that I’m low on Montero. He has great bat speed, but has trouble recognizing breaking pitches and is very impatient at the plate (averages about 2.5 pitches per AB). However, the ability to hit a breaking ball might not be as big a deal at Coor’s. I obviously don’t have the numbers to back up this claim but it would be interesting to look into. Montero already needs a 40 man spot and only has 2 options remaining, so its likely we’ll see him in the majors this season or next, and the Rockies may try to rush him to the majors. I think his profile could play well at Coor’s, since breaking pitches won’t break as much. So, if the Rockies are looking to get anything back in this trade, aside from dumping Arenado, Montero might be where they get it from.

  5. The Prodigy

    I thought this was correct, but without Sommers and Montero?

  6. John Bitzer

    All players involved in this trade have been updated now to their new teams on the site. Arenado’s value has changed due to the money (in other words, since the Cardinals are paying him less, any team trading for him now would as well).

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