Dodgers & Tigers & Mariners




Dodgers & Tigers & Mariners

February 13, 2021


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
France 26 Majors 3B Medium 5.0 22.6 12.0 10.6 8.5 10.6 12.7
Haniger 30 Majors OF Low 2.0 18.5 7.5 11 11 13.2 15.4
Seager 33 Majors 3B High 2.0 23.9 33.0 -9.1 -10.9 -9.1 -7.3
Cash 25


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Crawford 26 Majors SS Low 3.0 52.1 14.4 37.7 30.2 37.7 45.2
Fraley Minors OF 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Lux 23 Majors 2B SS Very low 5.0 74.4 18.3 56.1 44.9 56.1 67.4
Pollock 33 Majors OF Medium 3.0 18.8 35.0 -16.2 -19.4 -16.2 -13
Skubal 24 Majors SP Low 6.0 49.3 9.9 39.4 31.5 39.4 47.3
  1. Kurt Eger

    I know some will say this is ridiculous, but under a microscope it makes much more sense.

    Skubal pitched in college at Seattle University and has about the same value as JP Crawford and Jake Fraley. While the Tiger trade could have been done separately, I did them together to show how Trade 1-A and Trade 1-B depend on each other. The Mariners need Lux at SS to be able to move Crawford.

    The Tigers are close to competing and this gives them a chance to give a long term deal to JP and buyout a couple of his FA years before Story, Seager, Lindor, etc. reset the SS market after 2021. While it costs them a nice arm, GG fielders at SS with a league average bat and plus speed don’t grow on trees, especially entering their prime with 3 years of control.

    The Dodgers are actually getting bailed out here as the M’s will carry the groceries in this trade, as well as gamble on the future. To say Lux has struggled would be as understated as it would be to say sailing into a hurricane could be slightly dangerous. Be that as it may, the Mariners are eating a disastrous contract in Pollock ($36M/2yrs) and covering the remaining salary for both Seager and Haniger for 2021. Essentially freeing up the money they are paying Bauer in year one. The Dodgers get a pre-arb France to complement Muncy at 1B/2B depending on defensive opinions for the two, with Corey and Kyle Seager making up the left side of the infield. Haniger offers a similar batting and defensive profile to Pollock at a fraction of the cost and with one more year of cheaper control.

    The Mariners are taking the risk because another below average season for Lux will all but tank his trade value and the Mariners are trading Crawford just before he peaks in the classic swapping of an unestablished young player for an equally young and unestsblished prospect, while Fraley is a throw-in that helps balance the trade and to be frank, clear an outfielder from an already crowded group for the Mariners upper minors amd MLB roster.

    Lux is actually good friends with Kelenic and they workout together in the offseason at the baseball academy owned and run by Kelenic’s father. With Kelenic upset about what his agent and he believe to be service time manipulation, this would offer another reason to sign an Acuña-type-deal before the 2021 season starts. The Mariners wouls also be playing to their strengths by getting a lefty for T-Mobile Park.

    A rotation of Gilbert, Skubal, Hancock, Gonzales, and Sheffield could be very competitive and that doesn’t even factor in Kikuchi, Dunn, Kirby, Campbell, Carlson, Phillips, Then, Newsome, Murfee, and Limoncelli or the many swingmen with starting experience in the MLB bullpen like Graveman, Misiewicz, and Margevicius to name a few.

    The infield would then be Moore at 3B, Lux at SS, Long at 2B, and White at 1B. This keeps Noelvi Marte on course to take over 2B, 3B, or CF in a couple years.

  2. Keith Henry

    Would the M’s want to trade away three position starters for the privilege of paying $41M for an aging Pollock? Moore is not a third basemen…bad idea. M’s run away from this deal…maybe wait for Lux’s value to fall. Besides they do not need to improve SS or staring pitching. Why create holes to fill holes that do not exist? Talk about catcher and 2b…that’s where the improvement can come. Talk about Hoese, Cartayah Amaya…not Lux.

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