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Rangers & Mariners & Padres

February 28, 2021

Rangers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Crawford 26 Majors SS Low 3.0 52.1 14.4 37.7 30.2 37.7 45.2
Hosmer 31 Majors 1B Low 5.0 16.7 81.0 -64.3 -77.2 -64.3 -51.4
Kikuchi 30 Majors SP High 2.0 23.4 30.0 -6.6 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3
Morejon 22 Majors LHRP SP Medium 5.0 26.0 14.0 12 9.6 12 14.4
Myers 30 Majors OF High 2.0 24.0 41.0 -17 -20.4 -17 -13.6
Paddack 25 Majors SP Low 4.0 64.8 21.8 43 34.4 43 51.6
Cash 24

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Abrams Minors SS OF 68.3 54.6 68.3 82
Acosta Minors SS 11.3 9 11.3 13.6
Acuna Minors SS 7.3 5.8 7.3 8.8
Davis 33 Majors DH OF Medium 1.0 2.9 16.7 -13.8 -16.7 -15.3 -12.2

Padres

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gallo 27 Majors OF Medium 2.0 38.4 15.5 22.9 20.6 25.2 29.8
Haniger 30 Majors OF Low 2.0 18.5 7.5 11 11 13.2 15.4
Murphy 30 Majors C High 3.0 8.9 4.2 4.7 3.7 4.7 5.7
Sheffield 25 Majors SP Low 4.0 44.5 21.8 22.7 18.2 22.7 27.2
2 Comments
  1. Kurt Eger

    This trade should have already happened. This is such a slam dunk for all teams that it should have already happened in real life. With Tatis signing the extension and Cronenworth emerging to be the NL ROY last year, there is literally no home for Abrams that doesn’t lower his value, as he is not a CF and the transition would require extra time in the minors and potentially a lessening of his overall defensive value.

    The Padres essentially get to dump Myers and half his contract, trade 4 years of Paddack for 5 years of Sheffield, which balances the rotation and helps them financially going forward while still remaining competitive. The reality is that Paddack/Sheffield is going to occupy the 5th spot in the rotation and that may only be for a month until Gore is ready to debut. The boon for the Padres is they add two All-Star outfielders and a catcher who was one of the top 3-5 catchers in the league when he last got regular ABs in Murphy. This allows them to rotate Nola and Caratini at 1B or bring Gallo in depending on roster needs. A lineup of Murphy (C), Nola (1B), Cronenworth (2B), Tatis (SS), Machado (3B), Grisham (LF), Gallo (CF), Haniger (RF) would be the be a top 5 lineup in baseball and could even be the best depending on how everyone performs. The final benefit is that San Diego gets to dump about $100M in salary over the next 2-5 years. Biggest thing here is it clears some major payroll hurdles for the future and plugs any remaining holes for the team.

    The Rangers are taking on some financial burden, but both players looked to have rebounded last year and with the extra money coming from San Diego, the Rangers are only paying about $15M/year for both Myers and Hosmer in the first two years, then Hosmer only costs them $13M for the final 3 years once Myers is gone. This deal is made possible by taking dead money from a struggling DH in Davis and turning that into a 1 year deal for a mid rotation starter in Kikuchi, as they both are due roughly $17M in 2021. While $100M seems like a lot to eat, there isn’t a ton on the books for the Rangers and most of their good players are pre-arbitration (Taveras, Huff, Jung, Lowe, Solak, Dunning, etc.). Realistically without this trade, they are probably adding salary to make a rotation, so considering Myers and Hosmer fill positions that on average would cost $3-8M to fill with a league average FA, this is money well spent. The reason they take this trade is because the AL West is winnable with Oakland due for regression, the Mariners still rebuilding, the Angels still unable to pitch, and the Astros clinging to hope that their aging stars will rebound one last time and the young starters won’t crumble upon increased exposure to the league. Crawford gives them a GG presence up the middle with a left-handed Andrus type of skillset. He won’t win games with his bat, but he’s got OBP skills and can still provide offensive value. If Crawford, Myers, Hosmer, Paddack, Kikuchi all play to their full potential, they all could be worth around 4 WAR each. Morejon gives depth to the rotation and makes this team a wild card contender with the chance to add at the deadline while leaving room for their top prospects to breakthrough if they under-perform early in the season. Also, many of these higher contracts could still be flipped by the trade deadline to save money on future years and/or to add depth to the minors.

    The Mariners reasons for making this trade are pretty simple. They lack young infield prospects besides Noelvi Marte and Starlin Aguilar. This trade gives them someone who could be up at some point in 2021 or 2022 with the rest of the star prospects they have in their system in Abrams. It also gives them another middle infielder who is a couple years away and would start somewhere between either high-A or AA in the minors (Acosta) and could partner with Abrams as a middle infield combination for years to come in Seattle. Additionally, they get the younger brother of Ronald Acuña, who also looks destined to play in the majors, but is probably only ready for rookie level or short A ball to start the year and may be as much as 3-4 years from the majors. Finally, the Mariners have nobody locked in at the DH, so this gives Davis a chance to bounce back and be a deadline trade to either add a comp pick or a low level prospect and if he doesn’t show signs of producing can be released to make room for one of the many prospects close to arriving in Seattle. Since Davis only costs what the Mariners saved on Kikuchi, the deal has no negative financial value for the Mariners. If Texas balked at the cost, the Mariners could throw in $5-10M as well and this deal would still make sense for all parties, unfortunately this site lacks the ability to send money from two teams in a supposed deal. It is worth noting that the Mariners were due for a rotation crunch also, so this just creates room for guys like Newsome, Misiewicz, and Margevicius to get some starts before the wave of top prospect starters come to Seattle.

    Teams hate trading top prospects for established players because hindsight usually makes it hard to see the value. See Tatis to SD for Shields and ANOTHER pitcher, as if it wasn’t already lopsided without a second arm going to Chicago. That deal was so bad people have forgot about the Ruth to NY trade and Tatis only finally can drink legally in the United States. However, this deal allows for enough moving pieces that nobody will remember it as the Abrams deal, it will be the deal that brought the Padres a World Series and the Rangers a playoff appearance followed by a run at the top of their division for years to come. For cynics remember that Verlander, Correa, Greinke, and many others are due to be free agents after 2021, meaning they will have to make choices on who to keep, while also no longer having the luxury to keep FA player A for extra money while saving money letting FA player B walk, while replacing them with a prospect. The Angels are a mess with bad contracts and horrible pitching. The Mariners will be a force for years, but the Athletics look like they will be pressing reset on their roster after one last try for the postseason.

    For anyone thinking the Padres wouldn’t make this trade, it frees up $20M in 2021 and $10-15M in 2022, while adding two AS players, a potential AS catcher in Murphy, a mid-rotation SP in Sheffield with two years of pre-arb salary, and it only costs them 1 top prospect, 1 mid-rotation starter with 4 years of control left, and an under-utilized LHP who at best is a long reliever in their bullpen or a starter in their minors. Oh and this allows them to manipulate the service time for Campusano and lessens the need to rush Robert Hassell.

  2. Keith Henry

    everything works except the M’s would not trade Sheffield and end up short a starter, even if they gain a stellar prospect. Including Sheffield ends the discussion.

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