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Reds & Astros & Mariners

March 3, 2021

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Crawford 26 Majors SS Low 3.0 52.1 14.4 37.7 30.2 37.7 45.2
Haniger 30 Majors OF Low 2.0 18.5 7.5 11 11 13.2 15.4
Murphy 30 Majors C High 3.0 8.9 4.2 4.7 3.7 4.7 5.7
Sheffield 25 Majors SP Low 4.0 44.5 21.8 22.7 18.2 22.7 27.2
Urquidy 26 Majors SP RHRP Low 5.0 32.0 14.8 17.2 13.8 17.2 20.6
Valdez 27 Majors SP LHRP Medium 5.0 81.0 34.5 46.5 37.2 46.5 55.8
Cash 20

Astros

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Castillo 28 Majors SP Low 3.0 136.0 25.2 110.8 88.6 110.8 133
Miley 34 Majors SP Low 1.0 4.4 8.0 -3.6 -4.3 -3.6 -2.9
Winker 27 Majors OF Medium 3.0 46.4 18.6 27.8 22.2 27.8 33.4

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Akiyama 33 Majors OF Medium 2.0 8.3 16.0 -7.7 -9.2 -7.7 -6.2
Alvarez 24 Majors 1B DH Very low 5.0 118.1 50.0 68.1 54.5 68.1 81.7
Garcia 23 Majors SS Low 6.0 25.0 0.6 24.4 19.5 24.4 29.3
Lodolo Minors LHP 11.7 9.4 11.7 14
Torres Minors RHP 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5
1 Comment
  1. Kurt Eger

    Astros are trading a great young slugger in Alvarez and two young backend starters (Valdez & Urquidy) for a proven ace in Castillo and an abover-average replacement at DH in Winker. Torres is a throw in for Seattle and adds to their pool of bullpen arms. Castillo is necessary for 2021 to replace Verlander and to give a future ace to lead the rotation once Greinke’s contract is up this fall. With Greinke, Castillo, Javier, McCullers, and Miley, they have a solid rotation to compete with the best of the AL, and Whitley is able to fill-in for jnjury or replace Miley in the offseason.

    The Reds trade a good outfielder (Winker) and a stud SP (Castillo) for depth to their rotation, which helps replace the loss of Bauer, Castillo, and Desclafani. While Bauer and Castillo are true top of the rotation arms, Gray and Mahle are more thsn capable of matching up withost teama best starters. Turning Castilo into three young starters (Valdez, Urquidy, and Sheffield) with 5 years of control each is just what the Reds need, especially as Castillo is already costing $4.2M and has three more trips through arb. Having a cost controlled rotation allows for them to still add talent while absorbing the Votto, Moustakas, and Castellanos contracts. Just as the rotation gets costly, they will see nearly $70M in contracts fall away in a few years.

    The Mariners are flush with young stud outfielders, so they need to make space sooner than later. This allows them to trade Haniger for Alvarez who will play a little in LF for a few games, but mostly he becomes the future DH for the Mariners and a stabilizing force in the middle of the lineup for when the young guys arrive. Akiyama is roster filler until the young guys arrive and helps lower the salary burden for Cincinnati. Torres immediately factors into the bullpen either in 2021 or 2022. Lodolo gices the Marinees their first top southpaw starter prospect since Paxton and should arrive in 2021 or 2022. Garcia has already proven he belongs in the majors, but he might need another year or two before he can be the infield anchor of a championship team. The Reds are essentially trading control for polish, as Crawford better fits their competitive window, but comes with only 3 instead of 6 years of control. Also, while the Reds may want to take their foot off the gas, the Cubs and Pirates are looking to step back a little in 2021 and both the Cardjnals and Brewers appear vulnerable still.

    In the end the Mariners are adding youth and control, the Reds are diversify their talent to fill their holes, and the Astros are trading three good to great players for a good and an elite player who are still very affordable

    It hurts losing Castillo for the Reds but adding 3 pitchers with 5 years of control each and 3 position players with 3 years of control will make them better this year and extend their window going forward.

    It hurts losing a bat like Alvarez, but the Astros are only taking a small step back offensively in Winker, but giving up a couple mid-rotation starters and a one-dimensional hitter (albeit elite bat) for an ace with 4 years of control and a very good bat who offers three years of control and a little more defensive value.

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