Athletics & Mets Submitted by: Michael May 9, 2021 Athletics Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Davis 28 Majors 3B 1B Medium 4.0 26.7 10.2 16.5 9.9 13.2 16.5 Ginn Minors RHP 4.9 3.9 4.9 5.9 Lee Minors OF 9.3 7.4 9.3 11.2 Mauricio Minors SS 35.4 28.3 35.4 42.5 Total Value: 62.80 Mets Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Chapman 28 Majors 3B Very low 3.0 86.5 32.5 54 48.6 59.4 70.2 Total Value: 59.40
The problem with including Davis in the deal is threefold:
1) The A’s already have a 1B.
2) Oakland would be foolish to make a DH an integral part of any Chapman trade.
3) If Davis was worth a damn at 3B the Mets wouldn’t need to shop for an upgrade.
davis can hit but they need defensive help have you watched that team if A’s fall off and they are not happy with where they stand they might want to cut payroll rebuild and take the elite propects to rebuild farm and before you say alverez alderson loves that kid and does not like to trade propects only reason why mausurio is in because of lindor and alderson loves allan as well and they take davis and the nothing contract and figure out third in offseason I think you are overthinking the whole davis thing
I agree if Oakland falls off they could shop Chapman. That’s not the issue.
You talk about Oakland wanting to cut payroll and you include Davis, who’s already making $2.1 MM and will probably make between $4-5 MM in arbitration next year. Will Davis make less than Chapman in 2022? Yes. Will Davis make 8-10 times more than a pre-arb player? Also Yes.
If Oakland trades Chapman to cut payroll and rebuild then why would they want a player making millions of dollars, with only 3 years of team control, coming back in return?
you act like davis has this bad contract which is way less then chapman who would want close to 20 millon per soon and consider the propect package as well and I know davis defense is bad but pinder is bad He is not a starter if anything put him in late in games for defense when you are winning and take out davis
Your premise for Oakland trading Chapman is they’d do it for salary relief and to rebuild. I’m pointing out that JD Davis doesn’t fit those parameters; he’s the same age as Chapman and with 3 years of team control doesn’t fit the timeline of a rebuild.
Also, Chapman isn’t going to earn $20 MM annual through his arbitration years. He’ll probably make $10 MM in 2022 and call it $15 MM in 2023.
And lets talk about the prospect package you’re offering.
Mauricio is legit, I’m not going to say anything negative in his regard.
Lee is solid but he doesn’t make anyone’s Top 100 list. Doing some digging, I think it’s safe to say he wouldn’t make anyone’s Top 150 list and there’s a good chance he’d miss a Top 200 list… and this is the second most valuable prospect being offered for a star-level player.
Ginn is hurt, recovering from TJS. He won’t be ready to pitch in games until the second half of 2021.
This isn’t that great of a prospect package.
but you are getting davis a top 50 propect in mausurio a guy who steals 50 bases and who is major league ready and ginn yes he had tommy john but he still is good and tommy john does not mean you won’t be good still young look at a guy like degrom he had tommy john but he is the goat of pitching he is there 6th propect for a reason the tommy john might just push back his debut a bit
and speaking of third you are a oakland fan right so you must love chapman like I would so a bit of you not liking davis might be apart of your argrument and you trying to
get the most from the mets which there entire farm
also in terms of other third base options you praying not chapman bryant which is more likely just like chapman more which is why I have a lot of trades with him and I no longer want eugenio suarez hitting 130 after bad 2020 btw trade value went from 34.9 to negitive 11 for a reason
Mauricio rates in the 40-60 range, depending on the source. He’s a legit piece to offer in this scenario BUT the math is clear… there’s a significant Value gap to fill in order to acquire Chapman.
Lee is solid and will probably be ready to debut this year BUT that doesn’t mean he’s a top tier prospect. Check Fangraphs, BA, BP, MLB Pipeline… Lee isn’t a Top 100 prospect and his value reflects that.
Ginn is not still Good. About 20% of all players who get TJS never make it back. Of those that do recover, they don’t always retain their stuff. You bring up deGrom as a success story and I counter with Dillon Overton. Ginn is a Mystery at this point and until he can make it through his recovery and get back on the mound I think it would be foolish for any team to trade for him.
Davis can hit but he’s a lousy 3B. But the biggest problem with having him in this deal is any team trading away their best players to cut payroll and start a rebuild is NOT GOING TO WANT a player with a 7-figure salary and 3 years of control remaining. My being an A’s fan does not affect the the calculus that rebuilding teams want cheap players they can control for 5+ years.
If you’re pitching this as an Oakland rebuild you should use Crow-Armstrong in place of Davis; the values are close and Oakland has shown a recent tendency of targeting up-the-middle athletes.
A few points
1 about ginn all propects are a mystery with all propects you are taking a risk sometimes you got to go with the upside
2 mausurio will be ready in 2022 -2023 so you can deal with davis as the starter for 2 years and with using pinder for defense with mausurio waiting in the wings to be the 3B of the future
3 ginn plus lee a major league ready player and mausurio combined is a good haul
4 is davis going to make around 5-7 millon next year yes will chapman make close to 20 millon in 2 years also yes a big gap will oakland be cutting a good chuck for payroll also yes
5 he is in every trade online by actual writers and insiders for a reason right
Sure, all prospects offer Risk/Reward but the ones who undergo major surgery and are still in recovery offer more Risk and less-clear Reward than a healthy prospect. And you might think Ginn/Mauricio/Lee is a “good haul” but the math says it’s not enough for Chapman, which is why you added a 4th piece.
You keep comparing Davis’s future salary commitment to Chapman’s when you should be comparing it to a player making league minimum.
I think most of the trade proposals you see online are by people who, like the Mets, don’t know what else to do with JD Davis.
If you’re proposing this as a Take-it-or-Leave it offer from the Mets then I believe it would be very easy for Oakland to Leave it because of the reasons I outlined above.
update ginn is recoving nicely and he is only 21 and besides alvarez allen baty and armstrong who they are not trading with mausurio ginn is the best option
davis is not a rookie 2 he is worth more then most pre arbirtation players hit 300 in 2019 and hitting 380 this year
why would oakland care about pre abrbatation instead they should care about cutting payroll with davis on not pre arb
If Mauricio/Lee/Ginn is the best the Mets can do then I don’t see Chapman in NY. I’m glad to hear Ginn is recovering nicely, I wish him the best of luck in the process. But he’s still in Recovery and I’d prefer him Recovered and pitching in games before trading for him.
I never said Davis couldn’t hit. But a DH making 7x the salary of a rookie position player isn’t a worthwhile investment for a rebuilding team.
Why Oakland would care about paying a league minimum salary vs. paying an arbitration eligible, multi-million dollar salary when they want to cut payroll is a question that answers itself.
I posted a Chapman to the Mets proposal this morning, if you’d like to have a go at a counter-offer.
they would be fine with paying davis because of the quatity of the player and I will take a look at your trade
Oakland has a long running tradition of emphasizing quality defense at 3B. Please explain how JD Davis meets that expectation.
simple they start davis and they take him out for chad pinder late in games for defence
The A’s could just play Pinder full time at 3B. If they’re rebuilding, what’s the difference?
Davis doesn’t make sense for Oakland in the scenario you’ve laid out. Are you going to try and force something that doesn’t work or are you going to adapt?
because like pinder is like very bad um he can’t hit davis can so he is in there um.. they need at least decent offense to replace chapman who is a stud
But Pinder can play 3B and Davis can’t… the A’s need at least decent defense to replace Chapman who is a stud.
exactly they do what the mets are doing now davis start villar/guilome late in games
same with oakland davis start pinder late in games
That the Mets chose to piecemeal 3B doesn’t mean it’s a good idea for other teams to copy them. In fact, it’s a shining example of what to avoid. Why would you argue that a team should trade a star player in exchange for a Trade Value costly, part-time replacement when the team could Frankenstein 3B with players remaining in the organization?
If the A’s want to concentrate on short-term winning than they should keep Chapman. If they want to focus on adding long-term talent than why should the spend a sizeable chunk of Chapman’s Trade Value on a short term (and part time) player?
The answer is… they shouldn’t. It would be foolish.
they would have davis for 4 years including this one plenty of time to rebuild a team that already has some soild pieces
and about davis + pinder almost every team does defence late in games
Sorry. Oakland hasn’t had to swap out their 3B for defense for going on 20 years.
and did you forgot about the propects
Clearly I haven’t as we’ve discussed them on multiple threads.