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Cubs & Marlins & Mariners

October 13, 2021

Cubs

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brash Minors RHP 11.3 9 11.3 13.6
Hancock Minors RHP 16.7 13.4 16.7 20
Trammell 23 Majors OF Medium 5.3 8.5 3.4 5.1 4.1 5.1 6.1

Marlins

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Contreras 29 Majors C High 1.0 21.5 8.7 12.8 11.5 14 16.6
Happ 26 Majors OF Medium 2.0 31.7 16.4 15.3 12.3 15.3 18.3
Little Minors LHP 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Marte Minors SS 58.3 46.6 58.3 70

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Alcantara 25 Majors SP Low 3.0 93.4 22.5 70.9 63.8 78 92.2
Alfaro 28 Majors C Medium 2.0 1.0 3.3 -2.3 0 0 0
Bleday Minors OF 11.9 9.5 11.9 14.3
Wieck 29 Majors LHRP Medium 3.0 6.6 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 3.7
1 Comment
  1. Kurt Eger

    That is a horrible trade for the Mariners, you wouldn’t even get to hear them laugh… The Mariners are deepest at pitching. No way they trade essentially 7 years of arguably the top righty from the 2020 draft who before the pandemic was all but a lock to go 1st overall in the whole draft for 3 years of Alcantara, let alone throwing in Marte who may be one of the best SS/3B prospects in the game AND Brash who is sitting close to 100 mph deep into starts and has been borderline unhittable in most of his appearances. So much that the Mariners started his service time this year in case they could use him to get into the playoffs. Realistically, Brash is as valuable or maybe even more valuable than Kirby. Oh and have an ex-top 50 prospect and 1st round draftee who has improved his throwing arm enough to stay in CF, proven he can hit in AAA and has even found success at times in the majors. BUT WAIT, there’s more we get a backup catcher, a middling reliever about to enter arbitration and an outfield prospect for the team with possibly the best core of under 25 outfielders in the game. The kicker is that Bleday has twice as much value on here as Trammell, but no GM in baseball would give Trammell for three Bledays.

    Bleday is two months younger and has performed in AA during the 2021 season about the same as Trammell performed in the majors. At the AAA level Trammell put up an 800+ OPS and given enough time in the minors (only had less than 1/2 a season due to call-ups), Taylor would have had a 25 HR/20 SB season with great on base numbers as he managed a 40/74 walk to strikeout ratio. In fact, I don’t know why his value is such trash since he was only in his age 23 season which puts him two years younger than the average age of AAA players. Prospect status or not, he still has 6 years of control and plenty of time to reach his potential. Especially considering his above-average exit velocity on barreled balls.

    Kirilloff is only two months younger than Trammell and has more service time as he’s on course to be a Super 2, while Taylor is going to probably fall well under the cutoff. Trammell hit to a .615 OPS, while Kirilloff struggled as well in the majors to a .722 OPS. The difference being that Kirilloff has major ligament damage that took away half his season, which both stunts development and raises concern for his future health, even if only remotely. Additionally, Alex has never hit better than a .756 OPS above A-ball. His highest level in the minors was AA in 2019 where he hit the aforementioned .756 OPS. Granted in 2018 he destroyed A-ball with a 900+ OPS at multiple stops, but that was more than 3 years ago. Kirilloff was also forced to stay down at the alternative site for all of 2020, which also stole a chance for him to repeat time at both AA and to finally experience AAA for more seasoning in the minors.

    To recap:

    Kirrilloff is on course to be a Super 2 if he doesn’t spend any more time in the minors (4 times through arbitration instead of 3), has a major injury history question mark, performed like garbage in the upper minors and never even stopped at AAA, has been below average for a corner outfielder and is a average defender at best with average or below speed.

    Trammell is not on course to be a Super 2 if he doesn’t spend any more time in the minors (3 times through arbitration, like normal), has zero major injuries, while also struggling in the majors, had a great year in half a season of AAA and showed major improvement when recalled for anoth cup of coffee in Seattle. Taylor also can play ALL 3 OF positions including CF and at an above average level with plus to plus-plus speed.

    Kirilloff is worth 55.1M in excess value on BTV, while Trammell is worth 5.1M.

    Just so you know, I’m not cherry picking… Trevor Larnach is a year older than Trammell, also plays for the Twins and if he doesn’t return to the minors will also be a Super 2 arbitration case (4 times through arbitration, instead of 3) and struggled more than Kirrilloff with a .672 OPS in his first season in the majors. At AAA Larnach ran a .695 OPS (123 points lower than Trammell’s .818 OPS), while again being a slower, corner outfielder who will see arbitration one more time than Trammell and his value is currently: 28.7M in excess value.

    The one that makes me laugh is Wander Franco is the only prospect this year more highly regarded than Jarred Kelenic and despite Jarred being almost two years younger than Kirrilloff and being a much better reagrded prospect than Trammell, Kelenic only has a value of 49.8M in excess value, yet Kirilloff will go through arbitration an additional time, has injury concerns and Jarred has a 1.000 OPS in AAA and was destroying the majors during a penant chase while Alex was injured. Yet Kirrilloff is worth $7M more in excess value?

    As for Franco and Kelenic, they both have 6 years and 3 trips through arbitration in front of them. Kelenic struggled more, but was also called up months sooner. Jarred had an .854 OPS with a .275 BABIP which indicates he had bad luck. With plus speed and 30-40 HR power, he should be around a .325 BABIP meaning that in a luck neutral environment he would’ve posted closer to a .950 OPS from September 1st through the end of the season. Wander Franco on the other hand posted a .924 OPS with a .344 OPS, which is probably sustainable or a little high. Realistically, Franco in a luck neutral environment would have been closer to a .900 OPS. It should also be pointed out that Kelenic played home games in a very pitcher friendly environment, while Franco plays in a hitters home ballpark. Bottomline, Franco is younger and had a more solid 1st season, but there is no way Franco should be worth 183.3M in excess value, while Kelenic is only worth 49.8M in excess value. If Franco is truly worth 183.3M, Kelenic is worth at least 125-150M.

    As for Juan Soto, how is he worth 267M in excess value with only three years left of control? He should see an estimated increase of value of roughly $6.5M per year on his $8.5M Super-2 season, which makes the remaining arb years $17M (2022), $23.5M (2023) & $30M (2024) for a grand total of $70.5M in salary commitment. Compared to Kelenic, he’s a better player currently at the same age, but he’s going to make a lot more money too. A win is worth $8M on the open market, if Soto is a 7 WAR player for all the next three years, he’ll amass 21 WAR between 2022-2024. 21 WAR x $8M = $168M, considering he would then also be worth a qualifying offer that hurts his free agent money, but is added value for a team that trades for Soto prior to his final season. That QO is worth a 1st round pick between $5-15M in value. On the high side that’s $168M + $15M = $183M. When you take $183M and minus $70.5M in projected arbitration salaries, Soto should only be worth around 112M in excess value. He also should be listed on here as a tradeable asset with such a horrible team around him now. It should also be said that even in his prime when Trout was worth 10 WAR annually with the same reliability as tax season, he was never projected to more than 8-8.5 WAR for the coming season, so there is no way to project more than a 7 WAR season on a player who has never performed above that level.

    As for Franco, if we project him reasonably as a 5 WAR player for all 6 remaining seasons, this would be 30 WAR, he would probably see three arb seasons of $10M, $15M & $20M with a high of $12M, $18M & $24M. Going with the higher estimate which is $54M you subtract that from $240M (30 WAR x $8M) and that gives you $186M, pretty close to what Franco is estimated to do over the next 6 season on this site.

    If you project Kelenic as a 4 WAR player over the same time (24 WAR x $8M = $192M), you have to reduce the arb salaries to $8M, $12M & $16M or $36M for all 3 seasons. $192M – $36M = $156M in value. This feels right to me.

    If you are the Nationals and are about to pay Soto $70M over the next 3 years, you wouldn’t trade Juan and Keibert Ruiz for the next 6 seasons of Kelenic, especially considering that you would have an average of $23M a year to add talent around Jarred? Essentially you are saying 6 years of Jarred Kelenic and 3 years of Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray for 3 years of Soto and 6 more years of Ruiz. To me this is a slam dunk in favor of Kelenic and $70M in cash flexibility over Soto and Ruiz.

    The difference is even more profound with Franco, essentially Franco would be the same package of Soto and Ruiz, but with Josiah Gray included. There is no way a player can be worth more than $200M in excess value, even when signing a deal like Acuna and Albies. The reason is that anything with enough years attached to add that extra value comes with error bars, injury risks, and decreased production in the final years. The further you get from the end of the contract, the harder it would be to trust projections to accurately estimate the future. Which is why we don’t start talking about the HOF until a player usually has at least 20 or more WAR career. Case in point would be Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, both are great talents, but both come with major injury concerns. Kyle SEager beat his contract because he never got hurt or when he did, he played through the pain.

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