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Cubs & Mariners & Rays

November 25, 2021

Cubs

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brash Minors RHP 11.3 9 11.3 13.6
Kiermaier 31 Majors OF Medium 2.0 11.5 14.7 -3.2 -3.4 -2.8 -2.2
Williamson Minors LHP 5.8 4.6 5.8 7

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Walls 24 Majors SS Medium 6.0 24.7 7.8 16.9 13.5 16.9 20.3

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Crow-Armstrong Minors OF 14 11.2 14 16.8
4 Comments
  1. KXW //

    The Rays receive cap space ($12m in 2022, $2.5m in 2023) by moving Kiermaier, but they also add an excellent prospect in Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA is a phenomenal defender in CF with a prodigious feel for contact from the left side (huh, sounds familiar).

    The Mariners receive SS Taylor Walls, a switch hitting Swiss Army Knife who can play all over the field. DiPoto has been public about seeking a hitter who can play all over the field, and Walls is exactly that.

    The Cubs have to add salary to their books in hopes that Kiermaier has better luck against the pitching in the NL Central. But they also add two SPs with plus command as well as reliever risk—RHP Matt Brash and LHP Brandon Williamson.

    • M P

      PCA’s total lack of power might be a problem for the Rays. Plus, few teams trade 2 MLBers for one 19 year prospect.

      • KXW //

        This comment is bananas.

        You could also say that Kiermaier’s total lack of power might be a problem for the Cubs and Walls’s total lack of power might be a problem for the Mariners. And in truth, no one has any clue how much power PCA has in that bat because he’s only submitted 32 PAs in the minor leagues.

        And when you say few teams trade 2 MLBers for a 19-year old prospect, are you forgetting that the Cubs literally just traded Baez and Trevor Williams for PCA? And that the industry was shocked that the Cubs actually got the Mets to give him up?

        Walls is a blocked prospect and Kiermaier is a negative value player due to the money he’s owed. If the Rays were able to turn that into a high ceiling prospect like PCA who is very distant from Rule 5 selection, they’d be hailed once again as the genius FO that pulled off the Archer heist. But the trade doesn’t happen straight up between the Cubs and Rays because the only reason the Cubs would let PCA go is because they’re bringing back two upside pitchers from Seattle.

        • M P

          Relax buddy. I’m not saying PCA is a bad prospect. I’m just pointing out that this trade has two flaws for the Rays. First is PCA’s lack of power, which both MLB and Fangraphs give a 40 grade. Whether that is a problem for the Rays Front Office I don’t know. As a fan, I can tell you that a lot of fans want to ship out Yandy Diaz because of his penchant for only hitting singles and getting walks (and his poor defense). A lack of power means his value to the team is a lot less because he doesn’t drive in runs, which is the name of the game. Then there is top prospect X.Edwards, who suffers from even less power. His best comp is probably Dee Strange-Gordon, who has had a couple of good years but when you have no power, it’s really tough to produce at a .300 Avg / .400 OBP level year after year to make up for the lack of power. Gordon’s down years are downright pathetic. For comparison, Gordon’s career SLG is .360, while KK’s is .410, which is a big difference (league average SLG over the past 10 years has been as low as .386 but is generally in the low .400s). I don’t know where PCA eventually lands in the SLG dept. I’m just saying scouts don’t see much power in him right now.

          As for the generalities of trade rules, I don’t know what to tell you there. Teams simply don’t trade multiple MLBers for 1 prospect, and vice versa, or trade prospects for prospects. What one team does at the Deadline does not change the general rules that apply in the offseason. Obviously, any trade is possible, as teams are always trying to improve and will do whatever they think will help make that happen. Just saying that this trade is unlikely to happen because of the general rules applicable to trades.

          Getting back to KK – Your statement of him as a negative value player is bananas. He turned in a 2.5 fWAR season in 2021 and has never had a season below 1.3 (which was 2020 when only 60 games were played). One WAR is still valued at $8.0MM, which means that KK’s salary for 2022 ($12MM) is still a bargain considering his on the field play. BTV is assigning an injury risk to KK to get that negative value, and that’s fine. Some teams will conservatively value KK given his age, injury risk and in comparison to other similar players. But I disagree with it. As I said before, KK has never had a season below 1.3 fWAR and he has never missed an entire season due to injury. Betting on KK to exceed 1.5 fWAR in 2022 is a relatively safe bet (all players have injury risk after all), and so I don’t think the Rays will trade him with a negative value. Rays might trade him and they might trade Walls (who the Rays are very high on, even with Franco at SS), and they might even take PCA as the return, but this trade has real issues for the Rays. That’s all I’m saying.

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