Hoglund… guessing he’ll pitch somewhere (AA?) later this year. I wasn’t being totally serious about being the OD starter in 2023, but he has a pretty good chance of being their best pitcher in the bigs next season.
Admittedly, I didn’t want the Rays to give up anyone too good for Chapman because I didn’t think the difference between him and Walls was all that great, but I expected Chapman to return better players than this. Hoglund is known for his control more so than his stuff, and he’s coming back from TJS. He’s not a headliner in my opinion.
Hoglund had good stuff before the injury but you’re right, it was enhanced by his best-in-class Command. He had strong Top 10 vibes before he got hurt. But… he had TJS in May 2021 and his next pro pitch will be his first.
My guess is Oakland is betting all in on him making a full recovery to his pre-TJS form and rockets through the minors. I think they’re idiots for making that bet. But sometimes chasing the inside straight pays off, I suppose.
(It won’t. They’re fucked. And they need to be banned from ever trading with Canada again.)
I think Chapmans return was held down by his past two seasons; he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line and his his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. And pass hip surgery is probably a big concern moving forward.
philliesctschris salber
on March 16, 2022 at 4:54 pm
But his swing and miss is mostly on breaking stuff down in the zone. It’s not a trend that shows a slowing bat and declining skills but rather a mechanical/ vision issue. I think his rates compare with Schwarber in 2019/20 and the proper hitting coach could have positive results like 2021 Schwarber. If a hitting coach can fix his flaws, you’re looking a perennial MVP candidate with his elite defense.
Chapman’s struggles were already factored in to his value and even if you go with the low end estimate of 19.7… this return is still light. I think a bigger factor in play is what the A’s must think about Hoglund’s potential.
Come on Grover, tell me how you really feel. Seriously, I understand your frustration. I do think getting Kevin Smith is a positive. My opinion, for what it’s worth is that he has a good chance at being an above average major league player. I’m thinking probably at 3B although he was drafted as a Shortstop I think.
Kevin Smith is not the problem here and I agree he has the potential to be solid for the A’s. I think there’s a good chance he ends up more a utility type than full time starter at 3B but a useful, high floor piece.
LevelHeadedTraderSteve Jones
on March 16, 2022 at 5:47 pm
I’ll say it for the 10th time now. This website undervalues youth and overrates underperforming veterans.
The Jays got the 4th, 9th, and 27th prospect in a solid farm and a promising, young reliever.
Hoglund is undervalued as a 1st round pick (19th) just like Chase Petty was in the Gray trade.
Kevin Smith is a direct replacement for Chapman. He had a stellar 2021 in AAA hitting .285/.370/.561/.931 w. 21 homers in 94 games.
Logue has been a solid pitcher in the minors with a nice trajectory. He’s got a 4/5 pitcher ceiling.
Seems to me like a pretty good haul for 2 years of Chapman, considering he K’d 209 times last year and only put up a .716 OPS. Chapman, at this stage, appears to be a defense 1st 3B who you’re hoping turns it around with the bat. 3B WAR is overrated IMO if you’re K’ing 200+ times in a season.
Strong disagree. Prospect valuation seems to best follow a power law curve, as John has modeled it. Any prospect outside the top 100 will probably have an expected future contribution of one or less WAR (<$10m). Some may break out and be worth more than 2-3 WAR (~$15-30m) but not many. Front offices have even candidly admitted mid-first round picks (like Petty) have ~$5m in excess value. There are plenty of busts in first round draft picks.
As one of the least level headed posters on this site, the burden falls on you to provide data that BTV’s valuations are off. Personally, I’ve found them to be extremely accurate almost across the board (Craig Kimbrel being the one major exception.)
Re: Chapman. He’s estimated by FG to be worth 8.7 WAR in the next two years against a salary of $24m. This is a huge underpay by the Bluejays. For the lopsided trade, blame Billy Beane (and A’s ownership) not John Blitzer.
LevelHeadedTraderSteve Jones
on March 16, 2022 at 6:13 pm
Well, considering these trades for young players have been WELL off… it seems MLB teams are placing far greater values on these guys than John’s formula is.
Teams also value control and the ability to get their hands on a prospect to mold them. This is what the A’s live by. And they do a damn good job with it. Does the formula take that into account?
You have two examples from teams that had a mandate to cut salary at all costs. We’re also dealing with an unprecedented offseason being squeezed by the CBA negotiations. There’s going to be higher variance in the trades during this time period and the teams that have signaled that they must reduce payroll will lose their trades. They don’t have leverage.
LevelHeadedTraderSteve Jones
on March 16, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Ok, fine. But again, I think 3B WAR is inflated.
You just got 30ish years of potential MLB service time in 4 prospects for 2 years of a guy who just K’d 209 times and posted a .716 OPS. The Jays just traded their 1st round pick for a guy who may not swing the bat very well for the next 2 years. There’s some risk there that good defense, but poor offense doesn’t make up for in my opinion.
Again, the A’s value cheap, controlled prospects that they can mold. They’re not dumb. They’ve never been dumb. This trade probably felt like a slam dunk for them.
I don’t see how Hoglund is being undervalued. He had a mid-rotation projection at best before he got hurt… and then he got hurt. He’s like an unhealthy J.T. Ginn, it makes sense that his rating is lower than the healthy player with the same grade.
This is not the trade to make the case that the site undervalues youth. Smith and Logue turn 26 this year. Snead is already 27. That’s old for prospects with a combined 55 days in the major leagues. They have strong performance markers at AAA but the public sources BTV uses for scouting info all make it clear they have a bias towards star power over competency. If there’s a soft spot in the BTV model it’s in that in-between phase from AAA to non-established big league player. At a certain point big league performance takes over as the driving force behind value but for those who weren’t high-rated prospects (Logue and Smith are currently 40 FV) are going to rate low values.
This is a very good return for a player with a diminishing skill set & only 2 years of control who has already had hip surgery. If this site over values anything I think it’s years of control. I don’t believe GM’s value 2 years of control like they have in the pass but, maybe value it a little higher if they believe they are real contenders for those 2 years, I also think todays GM’s consider injury history more then they have in the pass & it plays a bigger role in future evaluation & maybe this site doesn’t take that aspect into account as it should.
It’s a lousy return because it’s centered around a baseball player physically unable to play baseball. The secondary pieces have the near term potential to be competent performers at the big league level but there’s little chance of above-average performance from any of them.
It’s a buy low swap for both teams. Getting Hoglund at this point was the only realistic way to acquire him. It doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme if he’s rehabbing through July.
Toronto bought low on a legitimate major league player with the expected floor of an above-average starter. The A’s bought on an injured college prospect known for his polish, not projection.
philliesctschris salber
on March 16, 2022 at 8:16 pm
And not to pile on, command and feel are the last things to return from TJ, especially in secondary pitches. I could very easily see a scenario where he is getting hit hard when he returns and doesn’t develop as the A’s expect. And he hasn’t developed much over the past few years anyway. Since 2019 he has only had a total of 31 starts at Ol Miss for a total of 154 innings pitched. He lost a chunk of 2020 to COVID and 2021 to TJ.
Real deal. Comes out as an underpay by Toronto.
The A’s will make up that difference when they rip off the Red Sox for Montas now that Sale is hurt
We don’t get ripped off anymore this isnt dombrowski’s team
yikes for the A’s
Oh fuck.
Not what you were expecting Grover?
Well, I did expect competence based on what we’d seen from the Olson and Bassitt trades.
The A’s probably got their 2023 Opening Day starter back in the trade.
I really expected Groshans to he in the deal; Oakland must not be wild about him.
Who, Logue? That’s just grim…
Hoglund… guessing he’ll pitch somewhere (AA?) later this year. I wasn’t being totally serious about being the OD starter in 2023, but he has a pretty good chance of being their best pitcher in the bigs next season.
Hoglund is going to be lucky to pitch A-ball by midseason, he’s still recovering from TJS.
Rays must not have been interested at all with Chapman.
What’s worse, they probably were.
Geez, A’s could have thrown 4 darts at the Rays prospect list and made out better than than this deal.
At least the 15 million (on the simulator) may pay to keep Manaea and Montas around for another year.
Why do the A’s constantly take such an underpay from Toronto?
It must be the exchange rate throwing them off.
Forgot to mention the cash is a placeholder to make it work in the simulator. It’s an underpay.
Hahaha thats true
Any idea which direction Olson’s value moves after the extension?
Woooof.
I am amazed the Jays got Chapman without giving up Groshans.
a lot of evaluators think Groshans isn’t very good
Awful trade by Oakland. It’s missing a true headliner.
My current theory is that whichever Oakland scout is responsible for covering the Blue Jays is actually a double agent.
Admittedly, I didn’t want the Rays to give up anyone too good for Chapman because I didn’t think the difference between him and Walls was all that great, but I expected Chapman to return better players than this. Hoglund is known for his control more so than his stuff, and he’s coming back from TJS. He’s not a headliner in my opinion.
Hoglund had good stuff before the injury but you’re right, it was enhanced by his best-in-class Command. He had strong Top 10 vibes before he got hurt. But… he had TJS in May 2021 and his next pro pitch will be his first.
My guess is Oakland is betting all in on him making a full recovery to his pre-TJS form and rockets through the minors. I think they’re idiots for making that bet. But sometimes chasing the inside straight pays off, I suppose.
(It won’t. They’re fucked. And they need to be banned from ever trading with Canada again.)
LMAO Love this for some reason
If this is what they accepted what did the Phillies offer?
I think Chapmans return was held down by his past two seasons; he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line and his his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. And pass hip surgery is probably a big concern moving forward.
But his swing and miss is mostly on breaking stuff down in the zone. It’s not a trend that shows a slowing bat and declining skills but rather a mechanical/ vision issue. I think his rates compare with Schwarber in 2019/20 and the proper hitting coach could have positive results like 2021 Schwarber. If a hitting coach can fix his flaws, you’re looking a perennial MVP candidate with his elite defense.
Chapman’s struggles were already factored in to his value and even if you go with the low end estimate of 19.7… this return is still light.
I think a bigger factor in play is what the A’s must think about Hoglund’s potential.
Or prime Josh Donaldson when he was traded to the jays lol
This was meant for here!
Chapman’s struggles were already factored in to his value and even if you go with the low end estimate of 19.7… this return is still light. I think a bigger factor in play is what the A’s must think about Hoglund’s potential.
Come on Grover, tell me how you really feel. Seriously, I understand your frustration. I do think getting Kevin Smith is a positive. My opinion, for what it’s worth is that he has a good chance at being an above average major league player. I’m thinking probably at 3B although he was drafted as a Shortstop I think.
Kevin Smith is not the problem here and I agree he has the potential to be solid for the A’s. I think there’s a good chance he ends up more a utility type than full time starter at 3B but a useful, high floor piece.
I’ll say it for the 10th time now. This website undervalues youth and overrates underperforming veterans.
The Jays got the 4th, 9th, and 27th prospect in a solid farm and a promising, young reliever.
Hoglund is undervalued as a 1st round pick (19th) just like Chase Petty was in the Gray trade.
Kevin Smith is a direct replacement for Chapman. He had a stellar 2021 in AAA hitting .285/.370/.561/.931 w. 21 homers in 94 games.
Logue has been a solid pitcher in the minors with a nice trajectory. He’s got a 4/5 pitcher ceiling.
Seems to me like a pretty good haul for 2 years of Chapman, considering he K’d 209 times last year and only put up a .716 OPS. Chapman, at this stage, appears to be a defense 1st 3B who you’re hoping turns it around with the bat. 3B WAR is overrated IMO if you’re K’ing 200+ times in a season.
Strong disagree. Prospect valuation seems to best follow a power law curve, as John has modeled it. Any prospect outside the top 100 will probably have an expected future contribution of one or less WAR (<$10m). Some may break out and be worth more than 2-3 WAR (~$15-30m) but not many. Front offices have even candidly admitted mid-first round picks (like Petty) have ~$5m in excess value. There are plenty of busts in first round draft picks.
As one of the least level headed posters on this site, the burden falls on you to provide data that BTV’s valuations are off. Personally, I’ve found them to be extremely accurate almost across the board (Craig Kimbrel being the one major exception.)
Re: Chapman. He’s estimated by FG to be worth 8.7 WAR in the next two years against a salary of $24m. This is a huge underpay by the Bluejays. For the lopsided trade, blame Billy Beane (and A’s ownership) not John Blitzer.
Well, considering these trades for young players have been WELL off… it seems MLB teams are placing far greater values on these guys than John’s formula is.
Teams also value control and the ability to get their hands on a prospect to mold them. This is what the A’s live by. And they do a damn good job with it. Does the formula take that into account?
You have two examples from teams that had a mandate to cut salary at all costs. We’re also dealing with an unprecedented offseason being squeezed by the CBA negotiations. There’s going to be higher variance in the trades during this time period and the teams that have signaled that they must reduce payroll will lose their trades. They don’t have leverage.
Ok, fine. But again, I think 3B WAR is inflated.
You just got 30ish years of potential MLB service time in 4 prospects for 2 years of a guy who just K’d 209 times and posted a .716 OPS. The Jays just traded their 1st round pick for a guy who may not swing the bat very well for the next 2 years. There’s some risk there that good defense, but poor offense doesn’t make up for in my opinion.
Again, the A’s value cheap, controlled prospects that they can mold. They’re not dumb. They’ve never been dumb. This trade probably felt like a slam dunk for them.
In reply to your comment below…
The A’s have done dumb before.
Like Semien, Chapman’s offense could flourish in Jay’s line ups.
So far, Bassitt, Olson, Chapman all were traded to beneficial franchises. Current A’s players will appreciate.
I don’t see how Hoglund is being undervalued. He had a mid-rotation projection at best before he got hurt… and then he got hurt. He’s like an unhealthy J.T. Ginn, it makes sense that his rating is lower than the healthy player with the same grade.
This is not the trade to make the case that the site undervalues youth. Smith and Logue turn 26 this year. Snead is already 27. That’s old for prospects with a combined 55 days in the major leagues. They have strong performance markers at AAA but the public sources BTV uses for scouting info all make it clear they have a bias towards star power over competency. If there’s a soft spot in the BTV model it’s in that in-between phase from AAA to non-established big league player. At a certain point big league performance takes over as the driving force behind value but for those who weren’t high-rated prospects (Logue and Smith are currently 40 FV) are going to rate low values.
This is a very good return for a player with a diminishing skill set & only 2 years of control who has already had hip surgery. If this site over values anything I think it’s years of control. I don’t believe GM’s value 2 years of control like they have in the pass but, maybe value it a little higher if they believe they are real contenders for those 2 years, I also think todays GM’s consider injury history more then they have in the pass & it plays a bigger role in future evaluation & maybe this site doesn’t take that aspect into account as it should.
It’s a lousy return because it’s centered around a baseball player physically unable to play baseball. The secondary pieces have the near term potential to be competent performers at the big league level but there’s little chance of above-average performance from any of them.
It’s a buy low swap for both teams. Getting Hoglund at this point was the only realistic way to acquire him. It doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme if he’s rehabbing through July.
Toronto bought low on a legitimate major league player with the expected floor of an above-average starter. The A’s bought on an injured college prospect known for his polish, not projection.
And not to pile on, command and feel are the last things to return from TJ, especially in secondary pitches. I could very easily see a scenario where he is getting hit hard when he returns and doesn’t develop as the A’s expect. And he hasn’t developed much over the past few years anyway. Since 2019 he has only had a total of 31 starts at Ol Miss for a total of 154 innings pitched. He lost a chunk of 2020 to COVID and 2021 to TJ.
Somebody in Toronto has photos of Billy Beane on Epstein Island.