Padres & Twins




Padres & Twins

April 7, 2022


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Rogers 30 Majors LHRP High 1.0 13.2 6.7 6.5 5.9 7.2 8.5
Rooker 26 Minors 1B DH Medium 6.0 4.4 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.3
Cash Minors 5


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Paddack 25 Majors SP Low 3.0 30.0 12.6 17.4 13.9 17.4 20.9
Pagan 30 Majors RHRP Medium 2.0 -2.4 2.3 -4.7 0 0 0
    • John Bitzer

      It’s clear Paddack had become expendable there, especially after the Manaea trade, so they probably took what they could get to squeeze in the deal right before the season started. It’s not a terrible overpay, though. Maybe they can get some upside out of Rooker.

      And I get that Rogers is a free agent after this year, but the Twins seem to want to contend, so trading their closer seems a little odd in that context.

      • Tim Vanryn

        tyler duffy had a large amount of save last seson and had a small era s mabye he could take over

      • Erik Jager

        Pagan becomes the Twin closer. Twins get a good starter, and Padres get payroll flexibility for the trade deadline. It appears that the Twins won this trade.

        • Tim Vanryn

          Pagan is still unproven, i dont know if he will be put into closer role

          • alex caton

            Pagan was the Rays closer in 2019, put up 20 saves and had a sub 3 ERA. He can easily be the closer

        • J.M. F.

          Twins get a poor starter and a weaker reliever. All they gain, in my opinion, is player control. The American League will eat Paddack alive. I doubt that Pagan is the closer. He is just not good enough to be the closer.

        • jeff blackwell

          I think it’s way too soon to assign winner-loser, especially when the trade addresses surpluses, budget constraints, needs adequately.

          If all players involved perform same as 2021, Paddack would not get many SDP innings with 4.40 era.
          With the cash Rogers offers more value to the SDP. But with Twins Paddack may get 150 IP even with 4.40 era.
          Rooker may turn out to be the darkhorse value of this trade — he has 6 yrs to develop.

          I would praise both front offices for wise management of their resources.

    • the_trademachine24

      This is an interesting (and pretty bad imo) deal for SD. Was Paddack on the block? Some in team trouble? Most teams would like a guy like him at the 4-5 spot in their rotations, especially with his $2.2m AAV contract.

  1. John Bitzer

    Real deal. There is cash going to the Padres, but the exact amount hasn’t been reported, this is a guess. There’s also a PTBNL going to Minnesota, which we can’t really represent here. So this is looking like a moderate-ish overpay by San Diego.

    • The cash was reported as offsetting the difference in salaries bt/w Paddack/Pagan and Rogers. Paddack makes 2.25 mil, Pagan makes 2.3 mil (about 4.5 million total) this year, while Rogers makes 6.7 million, so the difference would probably be around 2 million. That’s not enough to offset the value difference, especially after including the PTBNL, so this probably comes out as an overpay. Then again, the Urias-Grisham trade looked like a steal for the Brewers b/c the Padres, similar to now, had a roster crunch, but it now looks more even. The opposite was true with the Darvish and Frazier trades. You really can never guess Preller.

  2. Joshua Iversen

    Cash is reportedly $6.6M, which actually makes this one accepted by the model as just a minor overpay by the Padres ($17.4M to $15.7M).

  3. Matthew Savitski

    As a Twins fan, even though we won in value I guess, I really think this was a head scratching deal. We do not need yet another mediocre starting pitcher, we already have like 4 of them.. Rogers could have been shipped for more at the deadline for sure

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