Guardians & Cubs




Guardians & Cubs

August 3, 2022


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Contreras 30 Majors C High 0.4 13.4 3.6 9.9 7.9 9.9 11.8


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Burns Minors RHP 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.1
Lavastida 23 Majors C Low 5.4 7.7 2.5 5.2 4.2 5.2 6.3
  1. Bennett Johnson

    Trying to wear two hats here. One for my new team, the Guardians, and one for my old team, the Cubs (kinda like Maddux choosing which cap to wear during induction into Cooperstown–Atl or ChC. Ha!). Trying to figure out what it would have taken for Cubs-Cleveland trade to happen. Some of my new Cleveland friends say it never would’ve happened because of Contreras’ defense and clubhouse issues. Setting those issues aside, I think for the Cubs, it would’ve taken an offer like Burns-Lavastida to move the needle enough at the last minute to say yes. Burns is small for a pitcher, with some elbow issues. Lavastida is ahead of Naylor on the depth chart, which surprised me. Deal looks even per BYV. What do you think?

    • M P

      How are Cubs fans dealing with yesterday’s disappointment? Hard to imagine that neither Happ nor Contreras was moved.

      • Bennett Johnson

        How are we dealing with it? We’re all having a meltdown–all 20-30 million of us! Here’s what happened. A year ago at the trading deadline, Jed lucked out. The prospects he got back in all three trades–Alcantara, PCA, Killian, Canario, suddenly got a whole lot better after the trade. Some may call it great scouting, but looking at the Cubs draft picks for the last so many years, I call it great luck. So Jed decides to hold out for even more this year and overplayed his hand.

        He spent nearly $200 million on Suzuki, Stroman, Robertson, Simmons, Miley, Villar, Smyly, Gomes, Simmons, Givens, etc., thinking he could flip them (with the exception of Suzuki) for hot prospects. When the Cubs were out of the race early this season, Hoyer said he wasn’t even thinking about trades, which is exactly what he should have been thinking about. He should have shopped Contreras aggressively to a contender. That would have given him a sense of how other clubs were thinking about WC and evaluating him. Contreras value only decreased at time wore on, especially after his horrid July. Happ’s value just plummeted by 35%, since the trade deadline passed.

        Hoyer is an idiot. I can’t stand to look at his face. Rigid. Inflexible. Uncreative. After decades of being a loyal Cubs fan, I am looking for a new team, or sport. Possibly jai alai. Or fencing. My neighbor, who is from Boston, once called Theo Epstein, another overrated idiot, a genius, and I about lost it. Only in places like Boston and Chicago, where fans are used to losing, could theses guys survive. Give me a baseball team, unlimited resources, 5 years and I can produce a WS champion, too. Lotsa people can. I’m locking myself in a closet for the safety of myself and others for the rest of the day. That’s how I am!!!.

        • M P

          LOL… I was afraid it was that bad.

        • Ty Archy

          Your new GM comes from a GM tree that has the strategy, you get what you want in a trade or you don’t make it.

          I really thought both Happ and Contreras would be moved, but it feels like that the Cubs just never got an offer near what they wanted.

          It feels like Contreras never got above a 5 value and Happ never got above a 10-15 range in a sense. It’s hard to deal with, but it takes two to tango, and the other teams didn’t want to tango…

  2. Bennett Johnson

    Hey SC

    I think you’re right on all counts. But I disagree with that philosophy. I think the Cubs were right to be selective about offers on Happ. But they should have dealt Contreras if they got talent better than a second draft pick in return, especially a pitcher. I’m not sure what that equates to in a BTV evaluation. Allan and Smith from the Mets or Wilcox and Phillips from the Rays would’ve been fine with me.

    Now they are in a conundrum, as to whether offer Contreras a QO. I would and hope he signs with another team, but he might take it, given the lack of interest he generated at the deadline. However, his value will jump considerably w/o a QA attached. 3 to 4 years around $50-60 mil. would be my guess. So, there is some value there.

    I think the Mets, Rays, and Cubs all overplayed their hands. Sounds like Cleveland wasn’t all that interested.

    • Big Bat

      I actually don’t blame them for not underselling Happ. He’s too good with another year of control after this one to just give away. Cleveland wasn’t interested in Happ because all of a sudden they are flooded with OFers with more on the way. I’m not sure how they will get looks at all of them, but those things have a way of working themselves out.

      Contreras is a clubhouse and pitching staff leader. He’s one of the better offensive C in the league. His lack of control was never going to allow him to be dealt to Cleveland. Especially with Naylor and Lavastida so close. Naylor is ahead of Lavastida now by the way.

      I doubt Hawkins offers Contreras a QO because he probably will take it and why do that with Gomes and Higgins already on the payroll? I do agree that they overplayed their hand with Contreras, but I’m still surprised he wasn’t dealt to a contender in need of a C.

      • Big Bat

        Sorry Benjo, I forgot to include Joey Cantillo and Ethan Hankins with Espino, Williams and Bibee.

  3. Bennett Johnson

    Cubs should have drafted Parada over Horton for more reasons than one. But Hoyer likes to do the counterintuitive thing, like he knows more than anyone else, which is why Cubs have chosen Ryan Jensen, Thomas Hatch, Brendon Little, Burl Carroway, etc., and now Horton, undersized pitchers, over the years, while everyone else is loading up on talent. I honestly have no idea what the Cubs will do at C. They should have given Higgins more of a chance years ago. Instead they sign Gomes, who is 81 years old for 13 million (another 10-11 million on the since released IF’ers, Simmons and Villar). Amaya is a big question mark. My guess is that they will let Contreras walk, then offer somebody like Jonathan Lucroy a 2 yr. Deal for $50,000,0000, because Jed Hoyer is crazy and incompetent. Fire Jed Hoyer!

  4. Bennett Johnson

    Question for my Cleveland colleagues: How did Carter Hawkins let Cubs spend $200 million on crap this year? Simmons, Villar, Miley, Smyly, Gomes, Frazier, Stroman, Suzuki, Robertson, Martin, and Givens. Only Robertson was worth the money they paid him, and they got a nice return for him with Brown. The rest were lousy or average at best. I thought Hawkins was supposed to be a genius. “ Intelligent spending” and all that BS.

    Fire Jed Hoyer!

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