Submitted by: realchaimbloom
February 20, 2023
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availablility | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | 30 | Majors | OF | 1B | Medium | 4 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| Weisenburger | Minors | RHP | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
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Down vote for Oakland.
Greg Jones has been horrible since getting to AA. Vidal Brujan has yet to prove he can hit a big league fastball. Both players are on the Rays 40 man roster so who do the A’s release to make room?
Brujan has had only like 150 MLB at bats and Jones like 300 in AA. Brujan was a consensus top 50ish prospect for the past couple years and has nothing left to prove in the minors, but the Rays can’t give him consistent MLB time. Both guys fit what seems to be the A’s preference for speed.
Brown is a 30 year old power only guy who is a negative defensively. Best case for the A’s, he gives them 3 WAR per year for the next two years, gets too expensive in arbitration, and since he is two years older and in arbitration his trade value hasn’t actually improved from where it is now. Brown won’t get a legit top 100 guy, but buying low on Brujan has that type of upside (look at how Lowe broke out when he got away from the Rays and got regular playing time).
As for the 40 man roster crunch, the A’s have about a dozen 29 year old AAAA guys. I don’t know them well enough to pick out a specific guy, but at first glance I would say Moll, Smith, Snead, and Rooker all seem pretty expendable.
If Brown is such a negative why would Tampa Bay want him? Oakland has been focusing more on speed and contact ability but every team needs some power in the line-up.
If Brujan was getting beat by sequencing or breaking stuff during his limited looks then maybe there’d be more breakout potential… but he’s getting overpowered by fastballs. Jones is 25 and has failed to produce above High-A. The A’s are looking for athleticism and contact ability, Jones’ 35% K-rate fails the second part.
I don’t think Brown is a negative, I think he could be a 3 WAR guy for the next couple years. His floor as a left handed platoon DH still fits the Rays roster and their budget. My point was that he’s more Khris Davis than Matt Olson, so if the A’s don’t buy low on someone like Brujan, the return for Brown will either have way less upside or be way further from the majors.
I think the A’s need players who can be contributors 3-4 years from now more than they need power in the lineup. I don’t think Brown will be, but I think Brujan and, to a lesser extent, Jones, could be. The A’s could afford to give Brujan MLB playing time to see if he can figure it out over the next year or two.
Big picture, the thought process here is that Brujan is worth more to the A’s than the Rays, and Brown is worth more to the Rays than the A’s. I agree that Jones seems like he should have a value closer to 3 than 5.5, but he at least has enough value that the Rays made moves to get him on their 40 man. Maybe the A’s don’t throw in Weisenburger, or you swap Jones out for a different tier 2 Rays prospect (Vasquez?), but I think the framework makes sense.
I’ve been a fan of both Brujan and Jones at various points of their prospect-dom but neither of them entice for Brown. I’m good with taking further away prospects because I don’t think this is buying Low on Brujan; I have serious doubts about him being a big league contributor 3-4 years from now.
I agree with your big picture thought process but I don’t think the specifics line up.