This is my favourite bad trade the Jays can make. the 5 SP’s the Jays have on the 26 man right now are controlled for next year. Ryu is expected back before the trade DL giving them 6 SP’s. Acquiring Rodriguez gives them 7 SP’s. It also puts them in the first tier of the luxury tax. And my favourite part, if he doesn’t opt out of his contract, the Jays could have a 6 man rotation next year.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 26, 2023 at 5:26 pm
The Jays are 29th in SP WAR with -1.8, ahead of only the A’s. Their rotation, as a whole, has been worse than replacement level. I’m not sure the 36 year old coming off Tommy John who hasn’t been above average since 2020 and is hoping to be back after the all star break will be enough to solidify the Jays’ rotation for a playoff run. And when was the last time you heard a contender complaining that they have too much SP depth?
According to spotrac, the Jays are already in the first tier of the luxury tax, and I’m pretty sure this wouldn’t bump them up to the second, although I’m not the most knowledgeable about CBT so it’s possible I’m not accounting for the option years (or something else) correctly.
If Rodriguez doesn’t opt out, TOR has him for 3 years/49 M. For comparison, Kodai Senga got 5 years/75 M, Nate Eovaldi got 2 years/34 M deal with a vesting 20M player option and a 2 M buyout, and ERod himself got 5 years/77 M with an opt out after year 2 when he was a free agent in two years ago. Barring something catastrophic, Rodriguez opting in would be good value.
Rodriguez is also a natural trade target for every other team in the AL East, so trading for him has the fringe benefit of making sure he doesn’t go to BAL/BOS/NYY/TBR.
You must be using bWAR, fWAR has them middle of the pack amongst both leagues. In Ryu’s time with the Jays he has a 2,6 fWAR/150. Above average.
The Jays current CBT assessment sits at 251.5M. The next tier is 253M. Rodriguez would definately put them in the next tier.
I’m not talking value, I’m talking roster construction. You’ve got the 5 starters, then 2 more SP’s in the pen. Optionable players are Romano, Swanson, Mayza, Cimber, and Pearson. Non-optionable are Garcia, Bass, and Richards. Kick 2 off that list. When Green comes off the IL, kick another one off. Pop is on the IL but has options. White won’t be off the IL til late July, and he has no options, so kick someone else off the 26.
The Jays roster is a goddamn nightmare from the pitching side. Adding starting pitchers is not a solution it’s contributing to the problem. Their bench is extremely weak. That’s where they need help.
And the expression about SP depth is true, and it is about depth in the minors. 5 starters, a 6th in the pen, then SP depth in the minors
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 26, 2023 at 10:21 pm
You’re right, fWAR does like them better than bWAR. Usually 2-3 WAR is considered an average starter. Ryu was great in 2020, like 3% better than average in 2021, and bad (in a small sample) in 2022. But look at a playoff rotation. Gausman and Bassit are solid, then you need 2 out of Ryu, Berrios, Manoah, and Kikuchi. Ryu is a question mark, Berrios has been maybe a hair above average but was so bad last year, Manoah has been awful, and Kikuchi is a below average innings eater, and chances are at least one of them will be hurt. ERod would be a clear upgrade.
What’s your source for the CBT assessment? (Not being sarcastic, I could use more resources for teams’ financial info) Spotrac has them at 257M.
As far as roster construction, Cimber is an easy option, then I would probably DFA Bass, and optioning Pearson wouldn’t be a huge loss either. By the time White gets back, someone else will be hurt and there will have been plenty of time to make another move that they would have had to make whether they trade for ERod or not. This is just roster churn, and having a lot of AAAA relievers isn’t a good reason not to acquire a player as good as ERod.
They could use a utility guy, but both Biggio and Espinal are running BABIPs way below normal, so they should see some improvement just from positive regression. Maybe they can package Garcia and Kikuchi for a utility OF while freeing up a roster spot and some cash, or maybe Lopez gets it together in AAA and earns a call up. These are minor problems compared to the upgrade that Rodriguez brings to the rotation imo.
Fangraphs this time. Google ” roster resource” to get the info for the team you’re interested. Players information on rosters to payroll.
Other times I’ll use Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 7 or 8yr history, MS Excel based spreadsheet so it’s easy to download and the guy running the site answers emails about contracts. I’ve used Sportrac once and the data was wrong. Never again.
Who ever is DFA’d/lost off the 40 is also part of the cost acquisition. I don’t mind losing Hatch and Thornton, but after that you’re getting into reasonable substitute players. It all circles back to 2 SP’s in the pen. One I can see as a long man, but the other makes it bad roster management.
Biggio is a stiff. His only super power is being able to take a walk. Since he’s striking out over a third of the time and walking at less than 7% he’s I guy I wouldn’t miss. Espinal isn’t a power bat but decent enough. His superpower is good defence at 3B, 2B, and SS. Lukes is Belt’s and Kirk’s personal base runner.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 27, 2023 at 2:23 am
Thanks for the tip, I can’t believe I never realized that fangraphs had team financials!
You are absolutely right that losing someone to open up a roster spot is part of the cost of the transaction and they would need to cut one guy to fit in Rodriguez, and that having 7 active starters is clunky roster construction. My point is that these are not insurmountable problems. Ryu doesn’t even come back for at least another month, and someone else could be hurt by then. My assumption when I do these trades is that every team has 1 or 2 guys on the roster that are expendable. If they don’t, then they can get some value by trading the last guy on the roster.
An ideal solution to both the money and the roster issues could be to find someone willing to take Kikuchi (STL, ARI, COL, WAS, CIN, CHC, KCR, DET could use an innings eater and might take on Kikuchi if he comes with an asset). If you swap Kikuchi’s AAV for Rodriguez’s, that’s only an additional 2.3Mish against the tax if the trades happen soon or 1.2Mish if they are deadline deals. If 253M is a hard cap for the Jays, that’s probably too close for comfort, but they could get under it.
I don’t think Biggio or Espinal are great, just that they can contribute off the bench. If you give them their career average BABIPs, Biggio would be hitting .246/.303/.391 and Espinal would be hitting .285/.346/.354, which would be roughly in line with what they did last year to produce 1-2 WAR each. Their batted ball stats say that maybe they get halfway to the BABIP corrected numbers, which would at least make Espinal a solid utility guy. All that to say, I would wait until the deadline and see if they can turn it around before giving up an asset for another bench guy.
This whole discussion is interesting however irrelevant as the Tigers real need is in OF depth or possibly a very good SP prospect and Martinez is neither. NY, Balt, Philly, Rangers or Mariners match up clearer with their needs. The kink could be E Rod’s 10 teams on his no trade clause though.
McKinstry is doing a fine job at 2nd and can hold that spot until Jung arrives and they have plenty of infield prospects for 3rd or 2nd so again, infield is not an immediate need. There is virtually no OF depth in the system once you get past Parker Meadows. Maybe Campos takes a step forward but is only 19 yrs old still. All I am saying that with the current lack of SP that would seem to be available, that there should be better options for the Tigers than Martinez. In the end it will be up to Harris but I doubt that Martinez is on his shopping list. He might even go with pitching prospects as well.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 27, 2023 at 7:19 pm
I think we just disagree on the caliber of IF prospects in the system. I don’t think Keith or Malloy can handle 3B defensively in the majors and see them more as LF/1B/DH types, Lipicius is ok there defensively but doesn’t do anything well enough to profile as an everyday player and Pacheco feels 3ish years away. Martinez looks solid defensively at third, could reach the majors as soon as next season, and profiles as a Gallo type player. If you think that Keith or Malloy can stick at 3B long term, then I agree that Martinez is less appealing.
I also agree that the system is thin in the OF, but part of that comes from having just graduated Greene and Baddoo to the majors. Greene looks like a keeper in CF, Baddoo looks like a Kwan-lite with less contact but more walks, Vierling probably is better as a utility guy but he’s still reasonably young and has some untapped upside if he can be more selective, Carpenter has hit well enough in a small sample to earn a longer look, and the elder Meadows could come back at some point. Throw in the chance that Kieth or Malloy ends up as a corner OF and the younger Meadows, and DET has plenty of young OF options for the immediate future. They should look to rebuild organizational depth in the minors over the next few years, but I don’t think it’s a pressing need.
This is my favourite bad trade the Jays can make. the 5 SP’s the Jays have on the 26 man right now are controlled for next year. Ryu is expected back before the trade DL giving them 6 SP’s. Acquiring Rodriguez gives them 7 SP’s. It also puts them in the first tier of the luxury tax. And my favourite part, if he doesn’t opt out of his contract, the Jays could have a 6 man rotation next year.
The Jays are 29th in SP WAR with -1.8, ahead of only the A’s. Their rotation, as a whole, has been worse than replacement level. I’m not sure the 36 year old coming off Tommy John who hasn’t been above average since 2020 and is hoping to be back after the all star break will be enough to solidify the Jays’ rotation for a playoff run. And when was the last time you heard a contender complaining that they have too much SP depth?
According to spotrac, the Jays are already in the first tier of the luxury tax, and I’m pretty sure this wouldn’t bump them up to the second, although I’m not the most knowledgeable about CBT so it’s possible I’m not accounting for the option years (or something else) correctly.
If Rodriguez doesn’t opt out, TOR has him for 3 years/49 M. For comparison, Kodai Senga got 5 years/75 M, Nate Eovaldi got 2 years/34 M deal with a vesting 20M player option and a 2 M buyout, and ERod himself got 5 years/77 M with an opt out after year 2 when he was a free agent in two years ago. Barring something catastrophic, Rodriguez opting in would be good value.
Rodriguez is also a natural trade target for every other team in the AL East, so trading for him has the fringe benefit of making sure he doesn’t go to BAL/BOS/NYY/TBR.
You must be using bWAR, fWAR has them middle of the pack amongst both leagues. In Ryu’s time with the Jays he has a 2,6 fWAR/150. Above average.
The Jays current CBT assessment sits at 251.5M. The next tier is 253M. Rodriguez would definately put them in the next tier.
I’m not talking value, I’m talking roster construction. You’ve got the 5 starters, then 2 more SP’s in the pen. Optionable players are Romano, Swanson, Mayza, Cimber, and Pearson. Non-optionable are Garcia, Bass, and Richards. Kick 2 off that list. When Green comes off the IL, kick another one off. Pop is on the IL but has options. White won’t be off the IL til late July, and he has no options, so kick someone else off the 26.
The Jays roster is a goddamn nightmare from the pitching side. Adding starting pitchers is not a solution it’s contributing to the problem. Their bench is extremely weak. That’s where they need help.
And the expression about SP depth is true, and it is about depth in the minors. 5 starters, a 6th in the pen, then SP depth in the minors
You’re right, fWAR does like them better than bWAR. Usually 2-3 WAR is considered an average starter. Ryu was great in 2020, like 3% better than average in 2021, and bad (in a small sample) in 2022. But look at a playoff rotation. Gausman and Bassit are solid, then you need 2 out of Ryu, Berrios, Manoah, and Kikuchi. Ryu is a question mark, Berrios has been maybe a hair above average but was so bad last year, Manoah has been awful, and Kikuchi is a below average innings eater, and chances are at least one of them will be hurt. ERod would be a clear upgrade.
What’s your source for the CBT assessment? (Not being sarcastic, I could use more resources for teams’ financial info) Spotrac has them at 257M.
As far as roster construction, Cimber is an easy option, then I would probably DFA Bass, and optioning Pearson wouldn’t be a huge loss either. By the time White gets back, someone else will be hurt and there will have been plenty of time to make another move that they would have had to make whether they trade for ERod or not. This is just roster churn, and having a lot of AAAA relievers isn’t a good reason not to acquire a player as good as ERod.
They could use a utility guy, but both Biggio and Espinal are running BABIPs way below normal, so they should see some improvement just from positive regression. Maybe they can package Garcia and Kikuchi for a utility OF while freeing up a roster spot and some cash, or maybe Lopez gets it together in AAA and earns a call up. These are minor problems compared to the upgrade that Rodriguez brings to the rotation imo.
Fangraphs this time. Google ” roster resource” to get the info for the team you’re interested. Players information on rosters to payroll.
Other times I’ll use Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 7 or 8yr history, MS Excel based spreadsheet so it’s easy to download and the guy running the site answers emails about contracts. I’ve used Sportrac once and the data was wrong. Never again.
Who ever is DFA’d/lost off the 40 is also part of the cost acquisition. I don’t mind losing Hatch and Thornton, but after that you’re getting into reasonable substitute players. It all circles back to 2 SP’s in the pen. One I can see as a long man, but the other makes it bad roster management.
Biggio is a stiff. His only super power is being able to take a walk. Since he’s striking out over a third of the time and walking at less than 7% he’s I guy I wouldn’t miss. Espinal isn’t a power bat but decent enough. His superpower is good defence at 3B, 2B, and SS. Lukes is Belt’s and Kirk’s personal base runner.
Thanks for the tip, I can’t believe I never realized that fangraphs had team financials!
You are absolutely right that losing someone to open up a roster spot is part of the cost of the transaction and they would need to cut one guy to fit in Rodriguez, and that having 7 active starters is clunky roster construction. My point is that these are not insurmountable problems. Ryu doesn’t even come back for at least another month, and someone else could be hurt by then. My assumption when I do these trades is that every team has 1 or 2 guys on the roster that are expendable. If they don’t, then they can get some value by trading the last guy on the roster.
An ideal solution to both the money and the roster issues could be to find someone willing to take Kikuchi (STL, ARI, COL, WAS, CIN, CHC, KCR, DET could use an innings eater and might take on Kikuchi if he comes with an asset). If you swap Kikuchi’s AAV for Rodriguez’s, that’s only an additional 2.3Mish against the tax if the trades happen soon or 1.2Mish if they are deadline deals. If 253M is a hard cap for the Jays, that’s probably too close for comfort, but they could get under it.
I don’t think Biggio or Espinal are great, just that they can contribute off the bench. If you give them their career average BABIPs, Biggio would be hitting .246/.303/.391 and Espinal would be hitting .285/.346/.354, which would be roughly in line with what they did last year to produce 1-2 WAR each. Their batted ball stats say that maybe they get halfway to the BABIP corrected numbers, which would at least make Espinal a solid utility guy. All that to say, I would wait until the deadline and see if they can turn it around before giving up an asset for another bench guy.
This whole discussion is interesting however irrelevant as the Tigers real need is in OF depth or possibly a very good SP prospect and Martinez is neither. NY, Balt, Philly, Rangers or Mariners match up clearer with their needs. The kink could be E Rod’s 10 teams on his no trade clause though.
While I admire your faith in Nick Maton, I do not share it.
McKinstry is doing a fine job at 2nd and can hold that spot until Jung arrives and they have plenty of infield prospects for 3rd or 2nd so again, infield is not an immediate need. There is virtually no OF depth in the system once you get past Parker Meadows. Maybe Campos takes a step forward but is only 19 yrs old still. All I am saying that with the current lack of SP that would seem to be available, that there should be better options for the Tigers than Martinez. In the end it will be up to Harris but I doubt that Martinez is on his shopping list. He might even go with pitching prospects as well.
I think we just disagree on the caliber of IF prospects in the system. I don’t think Keith or Malloy can handle 3B defensively in the majors and see them more as LF/1B/DH types, Lipicius is ok there defensively but doesn’t do anything well enough to profile as an everyday player and Pacheco feels 3ish years away. Martinez looks solid defensively at third, could reach the majors as soon as next season, and profiles as a Gallo type player. If you think that Keith or Malloy can stick at 3B long term, then I agree that Martinez is less appealing.
I also agree that the system is thin in the OF, but part of that comes from having just graduated Greene and Baddoo to the majors. Greene looks like a keeper in CF, Baddoo looks like a Kwan-lite with less contact but more walks, Vierling probably is better as a utility guy but he’s still reasonably young and has some untapped upside if he can be more selective, Carpenter has hit well enough in a small sample to earn a longer look, and the elder Meadows could come back at some point. Throw in the chance that Kieth or Malloy ends up as a corner OF and the younger Meadows, and DET has plenty of young OF options for the immediate future. They should look to rebuild organizational depth in the minors over the next few years, but I don’t think it’s a pressing need.