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Reds & Padres & Mariners

March 15, 2021

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Crawford 26 Majors SS Low 3.0 52.1 14.4 37.7 30.2 37.7 45.2
Hassell Minors OF 21 16.8 21 25.2
Paddack 25 Majors SP Low 4.0 64.8 21.8 43 34.4 43 51.6
Sheffield 25 Majors SP Low 4.0 44.5 21.8 22.7 18.2 22.7 27.2
Weathers Minors LHP 12.5 10 12.5 15
Cash 9

Padres

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Castillo 28 Majors SP Low 3.0 136.0 25.2 110.8 88.6 110.8 133
Garrett 29 Majors LHRP Low 3.0 13.7 7.5 6.2 5 6.2 7.4
Haniger 30 Majors OF Low 2.0 18.5 7.5 11 11 13.2 15.4

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Abrams Minors SS OF 68.3 54.6 68.3 82
Akiyama 33 Majors OF Medium 2.0 8.3 16.0 -7.7 -9.2 -7.7 -6.2
Castillo 25 Majors LHRP Medium 4.0 7.2 4.5 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.2
Garcia 23 Majors SS Low 6.0 25.0 0.6 24.4 19.5 24.4 29.3
Lodolo Minors LHP 11.7 9.4 11.7 14
Myers 30 Majors OF High 2.0 24.0 41.0 -17 -20.4 -17 -13.6
2 Comments
  1. Kurt Eger

    The $9 million cash comes from the Mariners. The money will offset the super-2 salary for Crawford ($2M), as well as a fair portion of what Paddack and Crawford will see in 2022 from their arbitration cases.

    The Reds rotation is thin right now following Castillo, Gray, and Mahle. Miley and Hoffman would be fighting with Santillan for the last two spots in the rotation. This immediately helps the Reds by trading the last three years of Luis Castillo for multiple good young arms. While everyone needs an ace, Gray and Mahle are very good at the top of the rotation and the increase of Paddack, Weathers, and Sheffield increases the depth dramatically. All three should be considered breakout candidates and potential All-Star pitchers in the near future. Keep in mind Hassell, Weathers, and Sheffield are all from Tennessee, making them potentially more signable for players who would like to play closer to home, as was the case with Sonny Gray (also from TN).

    The Padres are consolidating their talent to make the best 25-man or 26-man roster, while also filling holes that needed to be addressed. Like Haniger for Myers may end up being a push in terms of talent, but Haniger comes with three years of control as opposed to two years for Myers, not to mention San Diego could use the discount by shipping out $46 million in guaranteed money for a guy who is due only $3M this year and less than $8M next year. Amir Garrett may be one of the best southpaw relievers in the game and will replace Jose Castillo who is recovering from TJ surgery until 2022. The Reds adding Doolittle and Weathers make this possible. Until Miley is traded or released, Weathers can get innings out of the pen which will help him get his arm ready for a rotation spot in 2022, while a couple weeks in the minors camp for Weathers will make this a bonus year in terms of team control for the Reds. Luis Castillo has almost the exact same value as Abrams and Paddack, making the Hassell, Weathers, Castillo, and Myers for Haniger and Garrett and $14 million in cap space seem pretty favorable for the Padres.

    The Mariners are getting some nice prospects, but again they are prospects not guarantees. They are shipping out some excellent assets who are better suited for competing rosters than burning years of control on a losing team, only to be traded in the last year of control should they fail to reach a contract extension. It is also worth nothing that while Myers and Akiyama are talented assets, their contracts supersedes their estimated value, making them salary dumps. With a record low payroll compared to previous years since the Mariners last playoff birth, it is fair to say they can afford to take on some bad contracts until their youthful players arrive and even then many of their roster aren’t due for arbitration raises until after both Akiyama and Myers are no longer on the team. Even overpaid Akiyama still adds value defensively and on the bases coming off the bench should younger players push themselves into starting roles on the team. Essentially making the cost outlay of $70M with cash for the two outfielders, comes with a negative $35 million dollars being paid by the Mariners to improve the weakest parts of their team, middle infield, lefty relievers, and southpaw starting prospects.

    This shows what each team is giving and receiving out of all the players with years of control in parenthesis…

    The Mariners trade:

    GG winning SS J.P. Crawford (4 years), All-Star Mitch Haniger (3 years), and SP Justus Sheffield (5 years), and $9M cash

    for

    C.J. Abrams (6+ years), Jose Garcia (6+ years), Nick Lodolo (6+ years), Castillo (3+ years), Myers (2+ years), and Akiyama (2 years) with the Mariners taking on $61M guaranteed from the two outfielders (Myers and Akiyama).

    The Reds trade:

    Ace starter Luis Castillo (3 years), lefty setup Amir Garrett (3 years), SS prospect Jose Israel Garcia (6+), LHSP Nick Lodolo (6+), and 4th OF Akiyama (2)

    for

    GG winning SS J.P. Crawford (4 years), SP Chris Paddack (4 years), SP Justus Sheffield (5 years), OF prospect Robert Hassell (6+), LH prospect Ryan Weathers (6+ years), all of whom are or were top 100 prospects in the last couple years, plus $9 million in cash relief.

    The Padres trade:

    SS prospect C.J. Abrams (6+ years), SP Chris Paddack (4 years), OF prospect Robert Hassell (6+), LH prospect Ryan Weathers (6+ years), LH reliever Jose Castillo (3+ years), and Wil Myers (2+ years)

    for

    Ace starter Luis Castillo (3 years), All-Star Mitch Haniger (3 years), lefty setup Amir Garrett (3 years), and $14 million in salary cap space.

    The team getting the worst of it would be the Reds and even then, they are trading a SP and reliever who will be unsignable for a small market like the Reds, a salary dump in Akiyama, and two unproven players in Garcia and Lodolo for five young and controllable top prospects, including two up the middle (SS & CF) players and three starters). All of which won’t start cashing in on their talents until around the time Votto, Moustakas, and Castellanos come off the books in 3 years through expiring contracts or declined option (Joey Bats). In the 2023-2024 offseason Crawford and Paddack will be entering their last year of arbitration, Sheffield his second year of arbitration, and both Hassell and Weathers will be a year short of arbitration or worst case, poorly paid super-2 players. Knocking $55+ million off the books after 2023 will go a long way towards paying the team-friendly-long-term contracts they can make available this year for these young players.

    While the Mariners are adding two excellent top prospects and an underrated SS with years of control, they are also eating two bad contracts and paying for Jose Castillo to recover from TJ surgery. The ability to use their available cap space to strengthen their veteran core, while also improving their top farm system to the best in baseball is an excellent example of why they are rebuilding so quickly. While Myers and Akiyama are salary dumps, Myers looked great offensively in his 2020 short sample and Akiyama provides on base skills, base running, and defensive aptitude which makes him a backup outfield option as prospects earn their promotions in 2021.

    The Padres have to be excited when they get to add one of the top 5-10 starters in baseball for a starter who struggled last year (Paddack) and a SS prospect who is blocked on the left side of the infield for the next decade, also they get a top 5-10 lefty reliever (A. Garrett) for a southpaw bullpen arm (J. Castillo) who will be recouping his strength until 2022. Sure it hurts losing Hassell and Weathers, but getting an All-Star like Haniger would’ve cost much more a year ago, while Mitch has successfully got himself in top shape for 2021.

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