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Padres & Tigers

September 14, 2021

Padres

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Mize 24 Majors SP Low 5.0 38.7 10.6 28.1 22.5 28.1 33.7

Tigers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Grisham 24 Majors OF Medium 4.0 88.9 31.5 57.4 45.9 57.4 68.9
Hosmer 31 Majors 1B High 4.0 3.1 60.0 -56.9 -60 -56.9 -45.6
Cash 30
11 Comments
  1. Bob Sacamano

    IMO, DET would be asking for either Cronenworth or Abrams if Casey was on the trade block. That’s not even considering Hosmer in the deal.

    • Bob Sacamano

      It’s puzzling for me to see Casey’s trade value so low.

      Maybe I’m just biased.. but, I think most teams would take Casey over Hassell, Grisham, Paddack, and Musgrove any day. Even CJ Abram would be close, after his recent MCL injury.

      • John Bitzer

        Mize has not exactly been a soaring success so far. He still has upside, as befits a former top draft pick, but his key stats are middling, — he’s only put up 1.1 fWAR so far in his career, which is easily replaceable — and the more this happens at the MLB level, the more his value will settle down into the lower echelons.

        • Bob Sacamano

          What has Paddack done that Casey hasn’t?
          Casey has 5 years of team control (to Paddack’s 3), & he’s only 24. I don’t think there’s a GM (win-now mode or rebuild) out there, that would trade Mize for Musgrove or Paddack.

          • John Bitzer

            Paddack put up a 2.4 WAR season in 2019, and is on track for another 2+ WAR season this year. Mize has not come close to that yet.

          • Bob Sacamano

            2+ WAR season this year? I don’t see how you’re getting this. Mize is currently at a 3.3 war according to baseballreference, Paddack is sitting at -.8

          • Bob Sacamano

            Musgrove is at a 3.4 (according to baseball reference) with only 1 remaining year of team control.
            If I’m PIT or BAL, I’ll surely take Mize over Musgrove and Paddack. If I’m LAD or MIL, I’ll still gladly take Mize over Musgrove and Paddack.

            Casey’s whip is drastically going down if he had a defense like SDP.

          • John Bitzer

            As I mentioned, we use fWAR as a basis, which has a much more advanced approach than BR, and correlates much better to models that MLB front offices use.

          • Bob Sacamano

            Interesting. What seems obvious to me is not always correct! And I’ll admit, I don’t know fwar. I will have to do some research. I know baseball is evolving and more analytical than ever, almost too much for me!

            What the player is currently doing/age/team control/$ is more concerning to me, than future projections, prospect rankings, and likely fwar statistic. Which is probably why I’m here and not working in Comerica Park!

            Thank you for the chat!

  2. Fred Kirk

    Does the fact that the Tigers continue to limit Mize’s innings and Skubal’s as well limiting them to 3 or 4 each outing adversely impact the numbers you use?

    • John Bitzer

      To an extent, yes. But it’s all forward-looking, so the model typically uses age to determine peak years; in other words, it anticipates improvement in younger starters up until about age 28.

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