johnbitzer

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We’re not totally sure the offseason is over, but given that real games are about to start, it’s probably best to consider it so. With that, it’s time for our semi-annual look at how our model performed against the trade market. As a reminder, we keep a log of every trade that occurs in real life – big and small – as a check on our model. This allows us to see patterns, and to make adjustments if necessary. Since we’ve been doing this for almost five years...

John Meloche

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The Blue Jays are four years into their latest competitive window, but what do they have to show for it? Between the 2020-2023 seasons, they’ve reached the playoffs three times, collecting 304 wins, with a .557 win percentage. They’ve been a steady wild-card playoff team, never winning more than 92 games, yet achieving the sixth-best record in baseball during this timeframe.  Granted, they’ve tried to add to the core by signing notable free agents such as Hyun Jin Ryu,...

jimmycostello

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One of the latest trends for teams in baseball has been to lock up young stars to extensions. Over the last few years, several big names have landed massive deals, including Fernando Tatis, Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, and most recently, Bobby Witt Jr.  For organizations, this ensures team control at a fraction of the cost a player may be priced at in free agency. For players, more money is paid upfront, and there's a safety net in place in case of injury. So which young stars...

Shawn Bergeron

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In my last article for BTV, I analyzed this offseason’s trades by Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves, focusing on their overall approach of “purchasing” field value at the expense of salary (and surplus value).  Now let’s look at this offseason’s trades by the Mariners, which follow a different methodology. The latest controversy surrounding Seattle’s President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has to do with comments he made this past December in...

James Hirota

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For players who will become free agents after the 2024 season, the question of whether or not to offer them extensions will be a tough one for some front offices. One primary reason: when star players are this close to free agency, there’s no incentive for them to take a discount – to make it worth it for them to forego their chance at a big payday, they’re going to want full market value.  Given that, let’s look at two borderline cases – a pitcher and a...

Robbie Hyde

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Robbie Hyde hosts his own MLB-focused YouTube channel.   Since losing in the 2021 ALCS, the Red Sox have endured the misery of back-to-back last place finishes, dismissing Chaim Bloom from his role as Chief Baseball Officer, and attempting to right the course by bringing in former Red Sox reliever Craig Breslow to lead the way. Like many others, Breslow came in and knew immediately that expectations would be through the roof, especially with the ill-fated “full-throttle”...

Kohl Wileczek

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At the end of every offseason, baseball fans have to look back and think, They can’t keep getting away with this.  The Los Angeles Dodgers, over the last 10 seasons, have a record of 939-580 while also making the playoffs all ten of those years, including a World Series championship in 2020. The long track record of success can be traced back to their development system and their ability to acquire and retain some of the biggest talents in the league. In the 2024 offseason alone,...

Jbtgiants1697

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by Jacob Taylor   After a few years developing a reputation as a bit of a front office golden boy with the A’s and Dodgers, Farhan Zaidi took the job of President of Baseball Operations with the Giants in November 2018. He brought with him a reputation for being highly analytical, and he was expected to leverage that mindset in a value-conscious way. But has he?  His team enjoyed one standout season, 2021, that, in retrospect, was driven largely by the old core of aging...

John Meloche

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Every spring I play out this internal dialogue where I think to myself: the Rays really can’t be that good again this season, right? The luck has to eventually run out. I’m perplexed as I pore over their roster and depth charts filled with unknown names of waiver-wire pickups and trade acquisitions, and occasionally what looks like a player on a savvy free-agent deal.  Yet, I know that while I don’t know where they managed to find these players, inevitably the Rays will...

Shawn Bergeron

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During an offseason that has had many fanbases bemoaning their teams’ inactivity, the Braves have stood out as one of the few very active teams. Atlanta’s freshly-extended President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos, perhaps best known for his trademarked extension strategy, has been on a trade rampage, completing nine of them between November and the time of this writing.  Though Braves fans are probably grateful they’ve consistently had moves to discuss this...

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